The surprising victory of a reformist candidate in Iran's presidential election has put Israel in a difficult position as it tries to halt the Iranian nuclear program: With Hassan Rohani likely to enjoy an international honeymoon, Israel could have a hard time rallying support for new sanctions -- or possible military action -- against Iran, even as it says the clock is ticking on Iran's march toward nuclear weapons.
The uncertainty facing Israel was evident Sunday in the reactions among its leaders, who welcomed the signs of change in Iran while also warning the world should not be fooled.
"Let us not delude ourselves. The international community must not become caught up in wishful thinking and be tempted to relax the pressure on Iran to stop its nuclear program," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said.
Rohani swept to a landslide victory in Friday's election with a call for outreach and dialogue with the international community. His predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, repeatedly clashed with the West over the nuclear issue, isolating the country and drawing several rounds of painful economic sanctions. Rohani's victory was widely seen as a show of discontent with Ahmadinejad and Iran's hard-line clerical establishment.
While Rohani is considered a relative moderate and had the backing of Iranian reformists, the hard-line supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei remains the ultimate authority on all state matters, including the nuclear program.
Israel, along with major Western countries, suspects that Iran is developing the infrastructure that would allow it to make a nuclear bomb. Although Israel believes Iran has not reached weapons capability, Netanyahu has warned that Iran is inching perilously close to the "red lines" where the nuclear program could no longer be stopped.
Israeli leaders have welcomed the sanctions, which have fueled double digit unemployment and inflation in Iran. But they say the economic pressure isn't enough, and that military action cannot be ruled out. Netanyahu has called on the international community to present a "credible" military threat to Iran, and hinted that Israel might even strike alone if it feels threatened.
Speaking to his cabinet on Sunday, Netanyahu noted that Khamenei had disqualified many more moderate candidates, and that Rohani has made hostile comments about Israel. He also said that Khamenei still oversees nuclear policy.
"The more the pressure on Iran increases, the greater is the chance of stopping the Iranian nuclear program, which remains the greatest threat to world peace," he said. "Iran will be judged by its actions. If it continues to insist on developing its nuclear program, the answer needs to be very clear -- stopping the nuclear program by any means."
Israel considers a nuclear-armed Iran to be a threat to its very existence, citing its support for terrorist groups on Israel's doorstep, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, its calls for Israel's destruction of and its development of sophisticated missiles capable of hitting Israel. Iran insists its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only.
President Shimon Peres took a softer line than Netanyahu, saying the results amounted to a massive show of disapproval with Khamenei and Ahmadinejad.
"More than half of Iranians, in their own way, in my judgment, protested against an impossible leadership," Peres, a Nobel peace laureate, told The Associated Press in an interview. "It is clearly a voice of the people and a voice that says, 'We don't agree with this group of leaders.'"
While saying it is impossible to predict the future, he said the vote was a "new beginning" that could pave the way for a peaceful resolution to the nuclear standoff.
When Rohani was Iran's chief nuclear negotiator a decade ago, Iran temporarily suspended all uranium enrichment-related activities to avoid possible sanctions from the U.N. Security Council. Enriched uranium is a key component in building a bomb, though it does have other purposes as well.
Israeli analysts were divided over whether having a more moderate Iranian president might actually weaken Israel's military option by making it harder to confront Iran.
Meir Litvak, head of Iranian studies at Tel Aviv University, told Israel Army Radio that Rohani's "smiley face to the West" might make the option of military action less likely.
But Eldad Pardo, an Iran expert at Hebrew University in Jerusalem, said he didn't believe Israel would worry about public approval if it decides military action is needed. More important, he said, was whether the U.S. and the U.N. nuclear agency can make progress with the new Iranian government.
"Generally speaking, I think that a different political culture in Iran is a good thing for Israel and it is good for Iran," he said.
Uzi Arad, Netanyahu's former security adviser, said that Rohani's taking over might be good for Israel.
Arad told Israel Radio that it was a good sign that millions of Iranians voted for a candidate who "explicitly spoke about acting to ease sanctions and strive for talks with the West."
Meanwhile, the White House said on Sunday the election of Rohani is a "potentially hopeful sign" if he lives up to his campaign promises to "come clean" over the nuclear program.
The implications of the election for Iran's relations with the West are likely to come up in bilateral sessions this week as U.S. President Barack Obama heads to the Group of Eight summit in Northern Ireland.
Obama administration officials have long said the White House is serious about engagement with Iran to end concerns over its nuclear program.
Since taking office in 2009 Obama has twice written directly to Khamenei offering him direct engagement, provided Iran shows it won't seek to develop nuclear weapons.
"If he [Rohani] is interested in, as he has said in his campaign, mending Iran's relations with the rest of the world, there is an opportunity to do that," Obama's chief of staff, Denis McDonough, told CBS' "Face the Nation".
"But to get to that point, we need him to live up to the obligation on the nuclear program and if he does I think there is a great opportunity for Iran and the people of that storied country to have the kind of future they would justifiably want," he added.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said in May that a new round of P5+1 nuclear negotiations with Iran is possible soon after the election.
Former Iranian nuclear negotiator Hossein Mousavian said Rohani's election "opens a new window for the P5+1 and Iran to work on a new era of cooperation rather than confrontation and to find a peaceful solution over Iran's nuclear dossier, face saving for both parties."
Others doubt if any deal can be struck while the 73-year-old Khamenei is alive.
"Those who want a deal can't deliver, and those who can deliver don't want a deal," Karim Sadjadpour, a leading Iranian-American expert on Khamenei at Carnegie, told Reuters.
After more than three decades without diplomatic relations, suspicions between the U.S. and Iran run deep. Yet, a recent special report by Reuters showed that behind the scenes both sides have shown more interest in some kind of dialogue than commonly thought.
In his initial reaction to the election result, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry urged Rohani to keep his election promises, putting pressure on the president-elect to show that he is serious about change.
"In the months ahead, he has the opportunity to keep his promises to the Iranian people," Kerry said in a statement.