The Likud and the Right-ultra-Orthodox bloc will be in a better position to form a government if elections were held today, a New Wave Research poll suggests. The coalition to emerge from the upcoming elections will likely comprise the following parties: Likud, Habayit Hayehudi, Shas, United Torah Judaism and Yisrael Beytenu. Together they make up a majority of 64 projected seats.
The poll, commissioned by Israel Hayom this week, suggested that a Center-Left bloc comprising Labor, Hatnuah, Meretz and Yesh Atid would win a collective 32 seats. If former cabinet minister Moshe Kahlon establishes a new party and allies with the Left, the Center-Left would still have only 45 Knesset seats, not enough for a 61-member majority. The Left might try to strike an alliance with the predominantly Arab parties, which are projected to win 9 seats, but this would not tip the scales in the Left's favor. At best, this would raise the Center-Left's representation to 54 MKs, which is still shy of a majority.
That said, Kahlon's party will likely be a force to be reckoned with in the upcoming campaign, as it is currently projected to win 13 seats.
The poll was based on a representative sample of 630 Israelis aged 18 and over who were chosen at random, with a statistical margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points.
Surprisingly, a plurality of Israelis (49 percent) were in favor of early elections, with only 42 percent saying they were against the Knesset's likely dissolution.
As the elections draw near, we might get to see strange political bedfellows coming together. Anything can happen. After all, strange things have happened in Israeli politics. Take Opposition Leader MK Isaac Herzog (Labor), who called on all parties "from Yisrael Beytenu to Meretz" to join a Labor-led coalition. Together with Kahlon, the Center-Left bloc will likely garner 55 seats. But if Herzog were to get a majority in the Knesset he would have to court the predominantly Arab parties (which are unlikely to officially join a coalition but are also unlikely to vote against the establishment of a Center-Left coalition). But the Arabs are not too keen on being part of an arrangement that would secure Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman a seat at the cabinet table.
When asked "who is most qualified to serve as prime minister?" 24 percent of respondents chose incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. None of the other candidates came close. Herzog was a distant second, named by 11 percent of respondents, followed by Tzipi Livni with 9 percent, Lieberman and Naftali Bennett with 6 percent and Yair Lapid and Moshe Kahlon each with 5 percent.
An overwhelming majority, 65 percent , said the bill waiving the value-added tax on some apartments was unlikely to lower housing prices. Only 25 percent said the measure -- which was among the issues that precipitated the government's collapse -- was likely to achieve its intended effect.