After several days of intra-coalition squabbling that threatened the two-month-old Kadima-Likud partnership, the two sides appeared Friday to be on the verge of an agreement over the new bill on haredi (ultra-Orthodox) conscription.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Kadima Chairman and Vice Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz on Thursday to discuss a compromise over the new bill, which would replace the Tal Law, which currently exempts haredim from mandatory military service. The main point of contention is over so-called "personal sanctions" – penalties that would be imposed on haredi draft dodgers – which Kadima insists on but which the ultra-Orthodox parties strongly oppose. Netanyahu reportedly told Mofaz that he would be willing to accept a personal penalty mechanism, in principle.

According to one of the prime minister's associates, Netanyahu told Mofaz that "we are actually like-minded when it comes to military conscription."

Speaking to Army Radio Friday, Coalition Chairman MK Zeev Elkin said, "The gaps between Likud and Kadima are not great; if you try to figure out the content of the process on this issue, we can draft a historic law that will gradually change Israeli society. We must not pass up this opportunity, precisely because Netanyahu considers August the cut-off date."

MK Yohanan Plesner, who headed the panel tasked with drafting the new law, has been one of the key proponents of personal sanctions. If his recommendations are written into law, haredim who choose not to perform military or national service upon reaching the age of 22 would be subject to monetary fines and reduced social benefits. Although the committee was dissolved before the official publication of its report, the recommendations were largely endorsed by Kadima.

Netanyahu's decision to accept the notion of financial penalties may clear the way for a compromise over the draft issue. The figures could reach tens of thousands of shekels, although Mofaz has already indicated he was willing to negotiate the exact figure during the deliberations on the bill. The general assumption is that Netanyahu's decision to allow the sanction measure to go ahead was coordinated with the ultra-Orthodox parties, which are likely to oppose the bill but will not use it as a pretext for leaving the coalition. Netanyahu has so far insisted that legislators should first agree on the basic outline of the bill and only then determine what the best enforcement mechanism should be.

Associates of Mofaz declined comment as to whether the meeting with Netanyahu produced a breakthrough that convinced Kadima to withdraw its ultimatum that it would bolt the coalition by Monday unless a solution was found. Mofaz and Netanyahu are expected to meet once again over the weekend or early next week.

"This is only a very modest step, albeit in the right direction," said one Mofaz associate, referring to Netanyahu's endorsement of the personal sanctions.

The reports of a compromise have rattled Mofaz's fellow Kadima faction members, some of whom have threatened they will defect from the party if the differences are finessed to the point that they are not in line with Plesner's recommendations. Some of them even said Thursday that they planned to attend Saturday's demonstration in front of the Tel Aviv Museum of Art, organized by the so-called “Suckers’ Camp” — a group of military reservists who have been at the forefront of the "service for all" campaign over the past several months, calling for all Israeli citizens, including haredim and Arabs, to be required to take part in some kind of mandatory service.

In January, the High Court of Justice ruled that the 2002 Tal Law, which effectively grants ultra-Orthodox a blanket waiver from the mandatory military service, was unconstitutional and had to be replaced by Aug. 1. The justices said the de facto exemption of an entire segment of the population from the mandatory service requirement discriminates against the majority and is inconsistent with Israel's core values as a Jewish democracy. They further said the law grossly undermines the notion of equality among Israeli citizens.

Last Monday, with the emerging recommendations threatening to unnerve Netanyahu's haredi coalition partners, the prime minister decided to disband the Plesner committee, saying it failed to meet its goal of formulating an alternative to the Tal Law that would successfully attain a majority vote in the Knesset. Friction and disagreement had surrounded the Plesner Committee since its inception, but Netanyahu's decision to disperse it after its likely recommendations emerged triggered a spat between Kadima and the Likud.

Netanyahu's associates explained on Monday that "ever since three of the committee members resigned, it had in essence lost its legitimacy. The Knesset would never have passed its recommendations, and there really was no reason for it to continue to exist."

The haredi parties insisted on a compromise that would see penalties imposed on the institutions that enable these individuals to study, rather than on the individuals themselves. Kadima insisted on imposing personal penalties but blamed Netanyahu, who did not want to lose his haredi coalition partners, of choosing an easy way out by dissolving the committee.

Netanyahu's move elicited strong reactions in the Knesset and from the Suckers' Camp protesters and placed tremendous pressure on Mofaz to decide whether or not to remain in the coalition. Opposition leader MK Shelly Yachimovich said she was already working on a measure to call early elections.

Former IDF Chief of General Staff Dan Halutz, a registered member of Kadima, said Thursday that he would leave the party if Mofaz were to compromise over the draft bill, and has even sent a letter to Mofaz urging him not to back down.

Yisrael Beytenu party chairman and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman also met with Netanyahu on Thursday. Lieberman's faction is expected to vote against the bill because it is unlikely to apply the mandatory service requirement on Israeli Arabs and because the party opposes Plesner's idea of allowing haredim to ask for deferment until age 22.

Meanwhile, some 200 haredi youth began their voluntary national service on Thursday with an orientation day at the Yad Sarah volunteer organization in Jerusalem. The number of haredim who have signed up for national service this year has soared by several dozen percent compared with last July.

"This is the first experience haredim have in the job market; they are exposed to a whole new world here," Menachem Shtauber, a married ultra-Orthodox man who arrived at Yad Sarah Thursday, told Israel Hayom. "Any attempt to coerce the haredi population will backfire with strong effect, and will cause further estrangement, and therefore the Plesner Committee was completely unnecessary; what's needed is a gradual and consensual process, not a political committee."

Dudi, a young haredi man who is married with two children, began his two-year national service experience as well. "I hope that we get the right tools and that they don't take away our eyes and hurt the world of Torah study. The only way forward is through volunteer work and mutual consent, not force."

Sar Shalom Jerbi, who runs the government's volunteer service apparatus, said Thursday that he was certain the new law would lead to a surge in the number of volunteers among the haredim. "The burden that you, the volunteers, have to carry is as heavy as the one carried by anyone serving in a non-combat unit in the IDF," Jerbi told the volunteers.

But some in the haredi world have adopted a more aggressive posture. Rabbis from Ha'eda Haharedit (a relatively isolationist stream of haredi Judaism in Israel) have ordered their community to engage in special prayer to reverse what they have termed "the draft decree against the Jews," for 10 consecutive days starting Sunday.

Pessimism also seems to carry the day in Shas, the Sephardic ultra-Orthodox party in the coalition. Housing and Construction Minister MK and Rabbi Ariel Atias warned that the way things are unfolding, Israel may find itself heading toward early elections. "The red lines we have drawn and the lines that the public thinks have been drawn by Plesner represent the maneuvering room."

The leader of the Suckers' Camp are already fully engaged on the upcoming demonstration Saturday night. Thousands of protesters are expected to walk from the main encampment grounds at the Tel Aviv Arlozorov Train Station toward the Tel Aviv Museum. One organizer said that he expects a wide spectrum of people to show up at the event, among them "reservists who are not in active duty – including senior officers – high school students, religious groups, wives of IDF reservists, and people from both the right and left of the political divide – the silent people of the Land of Israel who want to prove that the fight for equal sharing of the burden has become a consensus issue for the Zionist-democratic society in Israel."

The Kibbutz Movement, Bnei Akiva (a national religious youth movement), The National Student Union, "Free Israel" and Hiddush (two NGOs who oppose religious coercion), pro-Zionist movement Im Tirzu and the Israel Movement for Reform and Progressive Judaism plan to send representatives as well.

A statement released by the organizers said that "thousands of citizens are expected to participate and send a loud and clear message – service for all. This message will not be anti-haredi; rather, it will trumpet the notion of service, which will save the IDF down the road. No politicians will take part in the event, only private citizens and representatives from organizations of all political persuasions. This is the public's moment of truth -- Netanyahu and Mofaz will sell out the reservists for the sake of obtaining the Haredi support, but if the public fails to show up and exert heavy pressure -- it will have asked for a Tal Law 2."

Yoaz Hendel, who until recently served as the head of the National Information Directorate at the Prime Minister's Office, will be among the speakers at the event. Intellectuals, performers, rabbis and other public figures are also expected to be among the high-profile figures in attendance.

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