Iran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium to arm a nuclear bomb within two to four months but would still face serious "engineering challenges" — and much longer delays — before it succeeds in making the other components needed for a functioning warhead, a respected U.S. think tank said Monday.
While Iran denies any interest in possessing nuclear arms, the international community fears it may turn its peaceful uranium enrichment program toward weapons making — a concern that is growing as Tehran expands the number of machines it uses to enrich its stockpile of enriched uranium.
As those fears grow, so does concern that Israel could carry out its threats to attack Iran's nuclear facilities before that nation reaches the bomb-making threshold.
In a strident call for an internationally drawn "red line" on what he said is Iran's move toward nuclear arms, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sept. 28 that the world has until next summer at the latest to stop Tehran before it can build an atomic bomb.
For now, U.S. military and intelligence officials say they don't believe Iran's leadership has made the decision to build a bomb, while also warning that the country is moving closer to the ability to do so.
The Institute for Science and International Security did not make a judgment on whether Iran plans to turn its enrichment capabilities toward weapons making. But in its report, released Monday, it drew a clear distinction between Tehran's ability to make the fissile core of a warhead by producing 25 kilograms (55 pounds) of weapons-grade uranium from its lower enriched stockpiles and the warhead itself.
"Despite work it may have done in the past," Iran would need "many additional months to manufacture a nuclear device suitable for underground testing and even longer to make a reliable warhead for a ballistic missile," the report said.
In addition to its payload of weapons-grade uranium, a nuclear warhead also needs to have a complicated trigger mechanism that sets off a chain reaction in the weapons grade uranium — the fissile core of such a weapon — resulting in the high-power blast and widespread radiation characteristic of such weapons. While the International Atomic Energy Agency says Iran may have worked secretly on testing such a nuclear trigger, Iran vehemently denies any nuclear weapons experiments.
Additionally, ISIS — which often advises Congress and other branches of the U.S. government on Iran's nuclear program — said any attempt to "break out" into weapons-grade uranium enrichment would be quickly detected by the United States and the IAEA, which monitors Tehran's known enrichment sites. With Washington likely to respond forcefully to any "nuclear break-out" attempt, Iran is unlikely to take such a risk "during the next year or so," said the report.
Still, the report suggested a narrowing window as Iran positions itself to increase enrichment.
Iran now has more than 10,000 centrifuges enriching uranium at its main plant at Natanz, 225 kilometers (140 miles) southeast of Tehran, making low-level material. Additionally, it has about 800 machines turning out 20 percent enriched uranium at Fordo, a bunkered structure fortified against an air attack near the holy city of Qom, as well as about 2,000 more installed but not yet running.
Uranium enriched to 20% can be turned into weapons-grade material much more quickly than low-enriched uranium. If the centrifuges at Fordo, which are now idle, also start operating and are used to make 20% material, Iran — using its total enrichment output of low- and higher-grade uranium — could produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a warhead within three or four weeks, said the summary.
Olli Heinonen, who stepped down as the IAEA's deputy director general in charge of the Iran file in 2010, said the ISIS report contains "good and technically sound estimates."
He said Fordo will nearly double its production capacity of 20% enriched uranium to up to 30 kilograms (66 pounds) a month, if and when all the machines there are operating.
"10,000 Israelis will die if Iran is attacked"
Meanwhile Monday, Iran continued to scorn global efforts to curb its nuclear progress, with former Revolutionary Guards commander Mohsen Rezaee declaring Monday that at least 10,000 Israelis would die if Israel tried to attack the Islamic republic's nuclear facilities.
"If they [Israel] attack, Iran's awesome force will deal a critical blow and the death toll will be no less than 10,000, that is why they will soon stop," said Rezaee, who commanded over the Iranian military corps for 16 years and now serves as the secretary of the Expediency Discernment Council of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
In a speech broadcast from Iran to a group of Iranian students in London, Rezaee went on to say that "we don't want war, but we are fully prepared to protect our country from attacks. The Zionists obviously don't dare invade Iran, and they are talking about war just to secure concessions from the next American president."
Iran says blocked cyberattack on oil drilling platforms
Iran says it has successfully blocked a cyberattack on the computer network of its offshore drilling platforms, a semiofficial news agency reported Monday.
The report by Iranian Students' News Agency quoted Mohammad Reza Golshani, information technology chief for Iran's state offshore oil company, as blaming Israel for having planned the attack.
Iran periodically reports the discovery of viruses and other malicious programs in government, nuclear, oil and industrial networks, blaming Israel and the United States. In May, Iran shut down part of its oil facilities because of another such cyberattack.
Israel has done little to deflect suspicion that it uses viruses against Iran.
In this case, Golshani said, the attack occurred over the past two weeks, was routed through China, and affected only the communications systems of the network. He said the main network was safe since it was isolated from the Internet, and was back to normal operations. Iran announced that it had temporarily disconnected its oil ministry and its main crude export terminal from the Internet after the May attack.
Iran earns up to 80% of its foreign revenue from the export of crude.
Iran is at odds with the West over its nuclear program. The West suspects the program is aimed at developing weapons. Tehran denies the charge, saying its nuclear program is geared toward peaceful purposes such as power generation and cancer treatment.
A computer worm known as Stuxnet briefly brought Iran's uranium enrichment activity to a halt in 2010.