April's elections may see Zionist Union note its poorest electoral performance and potentially secure as little as seven Knesset seats, a survey commissioned by Israel Hayom and conducted by the Maagar Mochot polling institute determined Wednesday.
Polls conducted by major news outlets following Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's decision on Monday to call a snap election, set for April 9, consistently predict Zionist Union will lose at least half of its strength in the next election and drop from its current 24 Knesset seats to 12, at best.
Various independent polls, however, offer a more grim prediction, with some saying the Zionist Union – an alliance between the Labor and Hatnuah parties – could potentially shrink to a mere five seats.
Much of the electoral split in the polls hinges on whether former IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. (ret.) Benny Gantz, who enjoys wide public support, decides to enter the political race.
Wednesday's poll found that if Gantz were to establish an independent party it would win 16 seats, potentially making it the second-largest faction in the Knesset.
The survey was conducted among a random sample of 507 Israelis over the age of 18 and has a 4.3% margin of error.
If the elections were held today, the poll found, Netanyahu's Likud party would retain its power, winning 30 seats.
The Joint Arab List would win 12, followed by Yesh Atid and Habayit Hayehudi with 11 seats each, Zionist Union (7), United Torah Judaism (7), Gesher (6), Kulanu (5), Meretz (5) Yisrael Beytenu (4) and Shas, also with four seats.
Former Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon, who announced Tuesday that he was launching an independent party, is unlikely to pass the 3.25% electoral threshold.
The abysmal poll predictions for Zionist Union triggered growing calls to remove current Labor leader Avi Gabbay from the leadership position, as well as rumors of an impending split.
Five Labor MKs – Eitan Cabel, Ayelet Nahmias-Verbin, Yossi Yonah, Nachman Shai and Mickey Rosenthal – reportedly met Wednesday to discuss breaking away from the faction, but as the law requires a minimum of eight MKs to form an independent Knesset faction, it is unclear whether their plan will materialize.
Some reports claimed that the five were considering joining the Meretz party.
Cabel denied the claims, tweeting, "These reports are not true. With all due respect to Meretz, I do not now, nor have I ever thought about joining it."
Shai also denied the reports, saying he was "not splitting from Zionist Union. The Israeli public have the opportunity to elect another government and another prime minister, and I hope they elect Avi Gabbay."
Nahmias-Verbin dismissed the reports as "rumors," adding that this was a "natural part of the political process."
"Only people who never listened to a word I said could believe I would consider joining Meretz," she said.
Hatnuah insiders told Israel Hayom that party leader Tzipi Livni "has no intention of breaking from Zionist Union. On the contrary, she plans to continue being a key part of it."
If elected prime minister for a fifth term, Wednesday's survey offers a range of options for Netanyahu as he builds his next coalition.
One possibility is to duplicate the current government, comprising Likud, Habayit Hayehudi, Kulanu, Shas, United Torah Judaism and potentially Yisrael Beytenu, making for a 62-MK coalition.
Potentially including Gesher in the government instead of Kulanu would yield a 63-MK coalition, and including both in the government would give Netanyahu a 68-MK majority in the 120-seat parliament.
Based on past statements, Gantz, who has yet to confirm entering the political ring, could also join Netanyahu's government, most likely in lieu of Yisrael Beytenu, making the coalition 73-MKs strong.
However, before he can get to assembling a coalition, Netanyahu has to make sure to retain his voter base.
Wednesday's poll suggests Likud is unlikely to lose votes to Gesher or to Gantz's party, whose voters are more likely to identify with the center-left bloc.
Another scenario Netanyahu may encounter is an alliance of center-left parties that would represent a political bloc that could prevent him from forming a government.
This unlikely scenario would require Yesh Atid, Zionist Union, Meretz, Gantz's party, Gesher, the Joint Arab List and potentially Yisrael Beytenu to band together, creating a situation in which Netanyahu's government comprises only 58 MKs, rendering it nonviable.
