Iran could use its growing clout in Iraq to turn it into a springboard for attacks against Israel, Director of Military Intelligence Maj. Gen. Tamir Heyman said on Monday.
Israel sees the spread of Tehran's influence in the region as a growing threat and has carried out scores of airstrikes in war-torn Syria against suspected military deployments and arms deliveries by Iranian forces supporting Damascus.
Iraq, which does not share a border with Israel, is technically its enemy but was last an open threat in the 1991 Gulf War. Since a U.S.-led invasion in 2003 toppled Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, a Sunni Muslim, Israel has worried that Iraq's Shiite majority could tilt towards Iran.
"Iraq is under the growing influence of the Qods Force and Iran," Heyman told a conference in Tel Aviv, referring to the Revolutionary Guards' elite black-ops arm.
With U.S. President Donald Trump disengaging from the region, Heyman said, the Iranians may "see Iraq as a convenient theater for entrenchment, similar to what they did in Syria, and to use it as a platform for a force build-up that could also threaten the State of Israel."
Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi said Sunday that security officials from Baghdad had met Syrian President Bashar Assad in Damascus, and hinted at a bigger Iraqi role fighting Islamic State militants as U.S. troops withdraw.
In August, Iran transferred short-range ballistic missiles to Shiite allies in Iraq. Baghdad denied the findings.
The following week, Israel said it might attack such sites in Iraq, effectively expanding a campaign now focused on Syria.
Heyman predicted 2019 would bring "significant change" to Syria, where Assad has beaten back rebels with the help of Russia, Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah reinforcements, and where Trump this month ordered a pullout of U.S. troops.
"This presence of Iran, with Syria's return to stabilization under a Russian umbrella, is something we are watching closely," he said.
Israel has also been monitoring Iranian conduct since Trump exited the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran in May and reimposed U.S. sanctions. The deal placed caps on nuclear projects with bomb-making potential, though Iran denied having such designs. Trump, with Israeli support, deemed the caps insufficient.
"We believe that Iran will strive to stay within the deal but will do everything in order to find ways of circumventing the American sanctions," Heyman said.