Israel will host an unprecedented security summit in Jerusalem this week, bringing together US National Security Adviser John Bolton and Israeli and Russian counterparts Meir Ben-Shabbat and Nikolai Patrushev to discuss a host of running regional issues, such as the chaos in Syria and rising tensions in the Persian Gulf.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he hopes that the tripartite summit – the details of which will undoubtedly remain obscured – would enhance stability in the Middle East.
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In a special piece in The Hill, Brig. Gen. (Ret.) Professor Jacob Nagel, a former national security adviser and visiting fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, and Jonathan Schanzer, a former terrorism finance analyst at the United States Department of the Treasury and senior vice president at FDD, explained that while a host of issues will dominate the summit, "Russia's presence in Syria looms large," as Israel and the US are both concerned about the Kremlin's role in the survival of President Bashar Assad's regime and his coordination with Iran and Hezbollah – Tehran's Lebanon-based proxy – on the Syrian battlefield.
The summit, they hedged, "Will likely address the day-after scenarios, including how to navigate the Syrian theater" once the civil war wanes.
They noted further that for Israel, "This summit affords an opportunity to begin an earnest conversation on several key topics. The first is a political arrangement in Syria that includes the removal of all foreign forces. Israel seeks a return to the pre-2011 status quo. Foremost on Israel's agenda is the removal of Iranian forces from Syria, along with Iranian-backed Shiite militias. Less urgent, but no less challenging, is the continued Russian presence and role in the region.
"Neither goal will be easy to achieve. Russia is not likely to cede its new gains in the Middle East, where it has established itself as a power broker. And Iran clearly seeks to expand its presence in the region, in keeping with its hegemonic designs."
Assuming Russia remains the dominant superpower in the Middle East, Israel will push for a mechanism that helps to prevent friction among air forces operating in Syrian air space, so as to avoid another incident like the Sept. 17, downing of a Russian reconnaissance plane carrying 15 crew members, which was shot down by Syrian anti-aircraft fire trying to counter an Israeli missile on a facility in Latakia.
All 15 Russian crew members aboard the aircraft were killed, prompting a strong rebuke from Russia and causing friction between Israel and Russia.
Nagel and Schanzer said that such a mechanism is vital as Israel continues to find the need to strike Iranian assets in Syria or Hezbollah-bound weapons shipments making their way from Syria to Lebanon.
The tripartite summit "must yield a mechanism to prevent Iran's smuggling of sophisticated 'game-changing' weapons systems, primarily precision-guided munitions, to its proxies. This is also a core aim of the United States, but it is still unclear whether Russia will be willing to push Iran on this issue," they wrote in The Hill.
Ben-Shabbat is likely to urge Bolton and Patrushev to help safeguard Israel's interests in the region, they explained, adding that Israel's NSA chief may "also find a way to play the role of mediator between the US and Russia. The tensions between the two countries have not only exacerbated Israel's challenges, but also some of the challenges each country is experiencing at home."
Nagel and Schanzer stressed that this unprecedented summit has the potential to help mitigate some of Israel's most pressing regional challenges. "But the Israeli leadership also views this summit as an affirmation of Israel's global status. The Israelis continue to assert their place as a regional military power, but they are also now keen to convey that the country can play a crucial role in diplomacy, both among Arab states and great powers alike."
