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Home Analysis

Trump smiles with North Korea, threatens Iran

Nuclear weapons are at the heart of the difficult US relations with both Pyongyang and Tehran. But it's in North Korea where Trump has more leeway and perhaps a greater chance of striking a deal.

by  Associated Press and Israel Hayom Staff
Published on  07-02-2019 17:12
Last modified: 07-02-2019 18:52
EU plans new Iran push but may be nearing end of diplomatic roadReuters/Leonhard Foeger

The Iranian flag flutters in front the International Atomic Energy Agency headquarters in Vienna, Austria | Photo: Reuters/Leonhard Foeger

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With North Korea, President Donald Trump puts on the charm. But with Iran, he cranks up the pressure with economic sanctions and a stronger military presence in the Persian Gulf. He has warned its leaders they are "playing with fire."

Nuclear weapons are at the heart of the difficult US relations with both Pyongyang and Tehran. But it's in North Korea where Trump has more leeway and perhaps a greater chance of striking a deal.

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North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has seemed as willing to meet with Trump as the US president has been to talk and shake hands in front of the cameras with him. The North Korean leader jumped at the chance to meet Trump at the demilitarized zone between the two Koreas last weekend.

Trump has made repeated overtures to Iranian leaders too, but without the same results.

"I think Trump would be equally on a charm offensive with the Iranians if he had a dance partner," said Mark Dubowitz, an Iran nuclear deal skeptic with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Trump inherited heavy US sanctions on North Korea and then for months traded fiery rhetoric with Kim, sparring that caused jitters across the world. That has given way to flowery correspondence, meetings between the two and this weekend's historic visit when Trump became the first US president to step into North Korea while in office.

Not that Pyongyang has taken big steps in return. Critics point out that North Korea has not moved to denuclearize as Trump has demanded. But the country has refrained from conducting nuclear tests or from testing long-range missiles.

Trump tweeted late Monday that "our teams will be meeting to work on some solutions to very long term and persistent problems. No rush, but I am sure we will ultimately get there."

Trump campaigned on pulling the United States out of the nuclear agreement that Tehran signed with the US and other world powers in 2015. He complained that the deal, which eased economic sanctions in exchange for Iran curbing its nuclear program, didn't address Iranian ballistic missile capabilities or its support of militant groups.

After failing to adjust what Trump condemned as a fatally flawed deal, the US exited the agreement last year and re-imposed sanctions that had been eased when the deal was finalized under the Obama administration.

The pressure campaign evolved not like the Trump-Kim lovefest, but to what seemed like the brink of war.

With its economy diving, Iran lashed out by shooting down a $100 million, unmanned US surveillance drone and attacking shipping vessels in the Persian Gulf region. Trump said he was ready to retaliate with limited missile strikes but changed his mind when he learned 150 Iranians could have been killed.

He tweeted last week, "Any attack by Iran on anything American will be met with great and overwhelming force. In some areas, overwhelming will mean obliteration."

On Monday, Iran announced it now has a stockpile of more than 660 pounds (300 kilograms) of low-enriched uranium in violation of the 2015 deal.

But officials say the administration is less concerned about Monday's breach than possible further violations that could reduce the time Iran would need to produce a nuclear weapon. The deal aimed to keep that "breakout time" at one year.

Iran's deputy foreign minister has warned the White House that it's naive to think Iran will wilt under pressure, or that the Iranian people will revolt and throw out its government. He said Iran will not be forced to negotiate by having a knife put to its throat.

As for North Korea, administration officials caution that Trump's charm offensive with Kim does not foreshadow a softening of its insistence that his country must not have nuclear weapons. The New York Times reported on Monday that the administration might agree to a nuclear freeze as a first step toward denuclearization.

Under that scenario, which was quickly disputed by US officials, North Korea would not make any new nuclear material, meaning it couldn't expand its arsenal of 20 to 60 nuclear weapons. Under such a deal, North Korea would remain a nuclear power and would still have short and long-term missiles that could threaten US allies like Japan and South Korea, as well as the United States.

In its first year, the administration tried to work with Europeans allies to mend what Trump identified as flaws in the nuclear deal, such as its silence on its ballistic missile program and Iran's support for destabilizing proxies around the Middle East. The effort to create a separate agreement without Iran's participation ultimately failed.

Tags: IranIsraelJCPOAMiddle EastNorth KoreaNuclearsanctionsTrumpuranium

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