Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the other armed groups in the Gaza Strip believe another large-scale confrontation with Israel is bound to happen regardless of who wins the Sept. 17 election.
The only question is whether Israel will launch a ground offensive over a protracted several-day period rather than just engage in quick maneuvers, mostly from the air.
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This assessment can explain why terrorists have recently been firing rockets on Israeli cities such as Ashkelon and Ashdod rather than on the communities that lie closer to the border.
Hamas wants to test Israel's red lines and patience and has let PIJ fire rockets, although it keeps saying that "rogue groups have been firing rockets and thus hurting the national Palestinian interest."
Hamas's claim is misleading. While Hamas has not been directly involved in the rocket fire in recent days, it has turned a blind eye when others do it, mainly because it has moved closer to Tehran, which controls the PIJ.
Hamas, as the de facto ruler of the Gaza Strip, has promised Egypt that it would not allow an escalation. It has made a similar pledge to Qatar, which sends Hamas hundreds of millions of dollars to ensure calm.
It wants to please Iran and stage provocations, hoping this would prove it has something to show for all the Iranian arms and funding. But this has drawn criticism from the Sunni Arab world. Saudi Arabia has recently cracked down on Hamas, arresting key figures and freezing assets, and Egypt has been highly critical of the terrorist group.
It appears that for the first time since it took over the Gaza Strip in 2007, Hamas has been unable to please both the Iranians and the Arab world.
As a result, Israel's ability to deter the organization has been compromised.
