The final poll in the 2019 do-over election indicates that the trends of the past two weeks are growing stronger, with the two biggest parties coming in at a near-tie.
However, when we look at the major blocs, a left-wing bloc that includes the Joint Arab List and Yisrael Beytenu appears to have the advantage.
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An i24NEWS-Israel Hayom poll conducted by the Maagar Mohot Institute surveyed a representative sample of adult Israeli eligible voters. The poll had a margin of error of 2.8%.
The poll predicted that the Likud would win 33 seats – the largest number for any party. The center-left Blue and White trailed by two seats, winning a projected 31.
The Joint Arab List, which appears to have been energized by the controversy surrounding a proposal to place cameras at polling places, won the third-largest number of predicted seats – 12.
Yisrael Beytenu dropped to a projected nine seats, followed by the haredi parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, each of which was predicted to win seven seats.
Yamina (formerly the New Right) under Ayelet Shaked was projected to win seven seats.
On the Left, six seats were projected for Labor-Gesher, bringing it farther away from the risk of not making it past the minimum electoral threshold of 3.25%. However, the Democratic Union seemed to be in trouble and was projected to win only four seats.
The poll also showed – for the second week in a row – the far-right Otzma Yehudit passing the minimum threshold with a projected four seats.
All the parties are expected to invest more resources than usual in getting voters to the polls on Election Day. Most of the campaign took place during summer vacation, and this is a repeat election. Both these factors could lead to low voter turnout, which could have a major effect on the results.
The i24NEWS-Israel Hayom poll tried to ascertain how certain supporters of various parties are that they will actually vote.
Two-thirds (66%) of respondents said they were 100% sure they would be voting. Another 21% said it was highly likely they would vote. Only 13% said it was "somewhat likely" or "unlikely" that they would vote.
The most gung-ho voters were supporters of Shas, 79% of whom said they were absolutely sure they would be casting ballots. Just behind the Shas, in terms of declared voter turnout, was United Torah Judaism, with 77% of supporters saying they would be voting – the same percentage of Blue and White voters who say they will definitely vote.
However, only 69% of Likud voters say they definitely plan to vote in the election.
If we look only at the respondents who said they definitely plan to vote, Blue and White won the most seats, coming in at 33, followed by the Likud at 32 seats.
Two weeks ago, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that the right-wing public, especially Likud voters, were comparatively apathetic compared to left-wing voters.
This can be explained by another one of the questions on this week's poll. Respondents were asked, regardless of their political alignment, who would be charged with putting together the next government. Half of respondents said it would be Netanyahu, and only 25% thought that Blue and White leader Benny Gantz would be the person who would form the next government. Leaving out the 25% of respondents who said they didn't know who would be charged with putting together the government, 67% said it would be Netanyahu, compared to 33% who said they thought it would be Gantz. When a Netanyahu victory is seen as a sure thing, it's no wonder that right-wing voters might be inclined to stay home.
When asked who was most qualified to serve as prime minister, 49% of respondents picked Netanyahu, compared to 33% who picked Gantz. To the more specific question of who is best qualified to handle defense and security matters, 48% of respondents backed Netanyahu, compared to 35% for Gantz.
Netanyahu was also the favorite when it came to economic issues, with 41% saying he could best handle the economy. 36% said that Gantz was best qualified to handle the economy. However, when it came to social issues, Gantz came out ahead, with 39% saying he was best qualified to address social issues, compared to 33% who said Netanyahu was best-equipped to handle social matters.
When asked about blocs, rather than specific parties, 50% of respondents said they intended to vote for the Right, compared to 18% who said they intended to vote for the Left. Another 26% said they were in the center and 6% gave other responses.
Another question tried to pinpoint respondents' attitudes about the election. Fifty-three percent characterized it as "dirty," while 10% called it "violent." In contrast, 11% characterized it as "fair," compared to 8% who said it was "appropriate."
Blue and White billboards are promising a "secular unity government," and Lieberman has been touting a similar message these past few months. But how many voters actually want a unity government after the election? Not all that many, it turns out. Only 23% said they would like to see a unity government, compared to 41% who said they wanted to see a right-wing government, which Netanyahu is promising. Another 26% said they wanted the election to result in a left-wing government.
