The prolong electoral crisis is taking its toll on Israeli politics, as a recent poll shows that Likud and the right-wing bloc as a whole will face an uphill battle ahead of the March 2 elections.
The 2020 election campaign was announced on midnight, Wednesday, as the 22nd Knesset dissolved after neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor challenger Blue and White leader Benny Gantz were able to form a coalition.
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This will be the first time in Israel's history that a general election is held for the third time in the span of one year.
A poll commissioned by Israel Hayom found Thursday that were the elections held at this time, Likud would win 31 Knesset seats, placing it second to Blue and White's 37 mandates.
The Joint Arab List would secure 14 seats, followed by Yisrael Beytenu (8), the ultra-Orthodox Sephardi party Shas (8), the haredi Ashkenazi party United Torah Judaism (7), Labor-Gesher (6), New Right (5), and the Democratic Union (4).
The National Union, Habayit Hayehudi, and far-right Otzma Yehudit parties would fail to pass the 3.25% electoral threshold, which translates into four Knesset seats.
These results would give the right-wing bloc 51 Knesset seats to the Left's 47 – sans the support of Yisrael Beytenu and the Joint Arab List.
Should the Arab parties back Gantz, as they did following the Sept. 17 elections, it would give Blue and White the 61 seats necessary to form a government, effectively unseating Netanyahu.
The poll further examined potential voter turnout and found that only 59% of Israelis "definitely plan to vote." Some 23% said they were "highly likely" to vote, 3% said they were "inclined" to vote, and 15% of Israelis said they were "unlikely" to vote.
Still, 60% of Israelis said that the political logjam plaguing Israel since the general elections were called in April would not make them change their vote. About 27% said they were reconsidering the issue, and 13% said they plan to change who they vote for this time.
Asked who they believe is most suited for the role of prime minister, 42% said Netanyahu, 40% named Gantz – who has been steadily gnawing at Netanyahu's clear advantage in this area – and 18% said they had no opinion on the matter.
However, asked who they believe is most suited for the role of prime minister – Gantz or Netanyahu's Likud challenger MK Gideon Sa'ar – 36% preferred Blue and White's leader to Sa'ar, who was named by 31% of the respondents. In this scenario, 33% named other candidates or said they had no opinion on the matter.
The survey dealt Netanyahu another blow, as 43% of respondents said that he was to blame for the fact that Israel was going to the polls for the third consecutive time.
Some 30% said Lieberman was to blame, 5% said Gantz was at fault, and 3% named Blue and White co-founder Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid as the culprit.
As for the day after the elections, the poll found that 30% of Israelis would like to see a national unity government comprising Likud and Blue and White instated, while 19% would like to see a unity government comprising the two major parties and the right-wing bloc. Some 20% said they prefer a narrow right-wing government, and 15% would like to see a narrow left-wing government installed.
The survey, conducted by the Maagar Mochot polling institute among 500 respondents comprising a representative sample of Israelis 18 and over. The statistical margin of error is 4.4 percentage points.
