In light of recent developments and the death of former Quds Force commander Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani in a US airstrike Friday, the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) has updated its national strategic assessment for 2020, which it presented to President Reuven Rivlin on Monday.
The annual Strategic Survey for Israel forms the basis for a proposed security and political metastrategy in handling the threats Israel currently faces, and makes recommendations.
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INSS Director Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin presented the updated survey to Rivlin at an open press event. The document was the subject of heightened interest due to the uncertainty that is engulfing the Middle East.
The institute's main insight about Israel's situation in 2020 was that there was an increased likelihood of war. The 2020 strategic survey points to the tension that exists between Israel's clear security might and its success in a number of fields and the possibility that this success could be fleeting.
According to the INSS, that tension is the result of a number of factors that could develop into a wide-scale conflict – even a war – this year, mainly because of Iran's increased determination and audacity, both in terms of its nuclear program and its efforts to gain a foothold in Syria and other locations that will position it to take action against Israel. The INSS believes that Hezbollah's attempts to acquire precision-strike capabilities and Hamas' efforts to ease the crisis in the Gaza Strip and influence the terms of a long-term ceasefire deal with Israel are also factors that play into the possibility of a war, especially given the ongoing political crisis in Israel.
INSS researchers believe that the targeted strike which took out Soleimani gives greater weight to their assessment about the likelihood of an escalation and the need for Israel to decide on a new security strategy. The assassination of Soleimani, they said, creates a new context and potential for changes in strategy, the extent of which it is too early to predict.
According to the researchers, it is probable that Iran is examining its options for a response to the American strike, given the absence of Soleimani, who was in charge of conceiving and planning operations of that kind on the regional level. Researchers also said it was too soon to determine what the effects of Soleimani's death would be.
While Iran might try to deal the US a harsh blow in retaliation for Soleimani's death, it might also take action against US allies, researchers said, which could wind up involving Israel in the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran.
The INSS ranked the main threats facing Israel in 2020 in the following descending order:
A war against all the entities operating north of Israel's border: Iran, Hezbollah, and Lebanon, as well as the Syrian regime and pro-Iranian Shiite militias. The INSS says that the IDF must ensure that it is prepared to fight a war on multiple fronts. The INSS sees this as the No. 1 threat facing Israel this coming year.
Iran's nuclear program: This is the only threat that could potentially pose an existential threat to Israel. While it is less urgent for 2020 than the threat from the north, it could be extremely serious in the future. Israel must be prepared for an "extreme" scenario, the INSS recommends.
A military conflict in the south: The INSS says that the potential for a full-blown conflict with Hamas remains high, in spite of efforts to reach a ceasefire. Nevertheless, researchers believe, the risk of a conflict with Hamas is lower than the risk that faces Israel to its north. Should such a conflict erupt, the INSS recommends, Israel must wage it in the form of focused and surprised attacks on Hamas' armed wing, without attempts to keep Hamas in power and without reoccupying Gaza.
The INSS will be sharing its insights on Israel's security situation for this new year at its annual conference, scheduled to take place in Tel Aviv on Jan. 29-30.
