The Democratic Party's primaries season was officially launched last Monday in the state of Iowa. All eyes are now on New Hampshire where on Tuesday the second round in the battle for the right to face off against President Trump in the Nov. 3 election will take place.
What is remarkable about this race is the fact that even this early on, it is possible to spot a clear trend that allows for the drawing of conclusions and making of forecasts, however cautious, about the direction and nature of the decision in the Democrat movement. The main message out of the first hurdle is the incredible weakness of the most senior candidate, Vice President Joe Biden, who crossed the Iowa finish line in fourth place; a candidate who encapsulates the old, staid Democrat institution and the desire to cling to the status quo.
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And indeed, through his world view and conduct, the former vice president embodies a direct continuation of the Democratic candidate of 2016, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. After a year where he comfortably led all national polls, Iowa showed that the strategy of sticking to a fossilized and anachronistic Democratic platform was completely at odds with the vibrant and rousing mood in the Democratic camp, where tectonic shifts are underway.
It is fair to say that the trends seen in small and ethnically homogenous Iowa should not be seen as an exact national index. When taken together with Biden's dramatic descent in the latest polls from New Hampshire and the trends that can be seen elsewhere, however, the picture is becoming sharper, and shows a deep desire in the movement's popular power base to shatter the dominant, establishment Democratic paradigm, and replace it with an entirely different thinking pattern.
Two figures have entered quickly into the vacuum that has developed deep inside the Democratic party. Each of them wants, in their way, to refresh – or alter completely – the basic premise on which Biden campaigns. On the relatively more moderate side of the promise for change stands Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who in Iowa was catapulted from the sidelines straight to center stage, presenting a youthful, charismatic and articulate front. Add to this a whole list of ideas and plans intended to change the face of urban America in a wide array of issues, if they are ultimately implemented.
In the opposite corner of the boxing ring, on the more radical side, awaits Bernie Sanders, an opponent 40 years his senior, yet still endowed with a raving revolutionary passion, that has swept up in his wake a huge swath of young voters.
And yet, despite Buttigieg's articulate and impressive performance (which brings back memories of President Kennedy who conquered the White House at the age of 43), his route to winning the nomination of the Democratic party will be difficult and bumpy. The path for Sanders is even less clear. His views on social and economic issues in America are light years away from the founding ethos of the nation, which is based on entrepreneurship and individual achievements.
At the end of the day, unless Michael Bloomberg, who is spending large amounts of his fortune on his campaign, rises to the top after the votes in Nevada and South Carolina in the coming weeks, the race will be between Sanders and Buttigieg, where each one of them will be vulnerable and exposed in the crosshairs when facing the president.
