Prof. Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at Harvard University, predicts that within the coming year between 40% and 70% of the world's population will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19 (coronavirus).
"I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable," Lipsitch told The Atlantic.
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He clarified, however, that this does not mean that all will have severe illnesses. "It's likely that many will have mild disease, or may be asymptomatic," he said.
Similar to influenza, which is often life-threatening to people with chronic health conditions and of older age, most cases pass without medical care. Overall, about 14% of people with influenza have no symptoms.
Containment is the first step in responding to any outbreak. In the case of the coronavirus, despite the aggressive efforts of the Chinese government to progressively cordon off larger areas radiating outward from the city of Wuhan, suspected ground-zero for the virus' outbreak, it seems containment failed in a matter of days.
Some 100 million people in Wuhan province were barred from leaving their homes and were lectured by drones with loudspeakers if they were caught outside. Nonetheless, the virus has now been found in 24 countries, including Israel.
Lipsitch is not alone in predicting that the virus will continue to spread widely. According to The Atlantic, the gradually emerging consensus among epidemiologists is that the most likely outcome of this outbreak is a new seasonal disease – a fifth "endemic" coronavirus.
