The Superbowl of American politics – the presidential debates between Donald Trump and Joe Biden – are about to get started. But unlike the NFL, the winner of the debates (and there are only three) won't necessarily win. In effect, what is said in these debates will do almost nothing to change the minds of undecided voters. The way in which it is said, possibly. Generally, the challenger to the president is the one who benefits from the debates. The fact that they are standing on the same stage as the most powerful man in the world is enough to give them legitimacy, and if Biden manages to stand for a full 90 minutes and return fire, it will be a major boost to his image.
The New York Times exposé on Trump's income taxes in recent years will no doubt cause the issue to be the subject of discussion in the debate, and Trump will again have to respond to claims that he is hiding the numbers about his true financial situation. However, US tax experts are saying that the parts of Trump's tax returns that have been made public do not indicate any criminal activity, and that the returns show that Trump has managed to use tax laws to receive the tax cuts and write-offs that are customary in the business world.
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Either way, the debate momentum is the most important thing a candidate, incumbent or not, can take away. In 1960, the young senator John F. Kennedy got what he wanted from the debate, becoming the political equal of then-Vice President Richard Nixon (in part because Nixon ignored the need to shave and put on TV makeup before the historic televised debate). At the moment of truth, Nixon lost by a few electoral votes and a tiny gap in the popular vote.
Ultimately, when a sitting president is seeking reelection, the race is always a referendum, and the presidential debates are a preview of that referendum and his chance to prove that he deserves to be given another term.
Bill Clinton also took advantage of the debates with George H.W. Bush to prove how well he could talk directly to voters. Bush Sr., despite the halo of the Gulf War and the end of the Cold War, didn't come across well on camera.
Either way, both Donald Trump and Joe Biden know that the debates won't decide the election, but on the other hand, they know that every remark, now matter how minor, every slip – however momentary – and every unsuccessful soundbite and facial expression can make headlines and hijack the agenda for several hours or days. When Bush Sr. snuck a look at his watch in the 1992 debate, he became a punching bag for days.
How important are this year's debates? It seems as if they aren't, because most of the election events thus far haven't caused any movement in the polls. The voters have already made up their minds and are deeply involved in the campaign, and there is an unusually small number of undecideds. What will decide the election is not what promises Trump or Biden make, or even some pathetic comment by either of them – expectations of both are so low that nothing will faze voters.
What will determine the election is whether or not one of the candidates will manage to set America's imagination on fire and ride a wave of optimism, hope and energy, as Trump did in the last two weeks of the 2016 election. This year, Trump is facing a tough challenge – among other things, he is no longer an outsider. But beyond that, there is the electoral math: his voters are very passionate, but they comprise a smaller sector of the population than they did in 2016 and his coalition is gradually losing the votes that will decide the election: non-college educated white voters.
But Biden isn't facing an easy task, either. His voters are not over enthused, and even the ones who are disappointed in Trump could stay home or vote for Trump again for economic reasons, as Trump is consistently seen – even during the COVID pandemic – as the best qualified person to run the economy, which until recently was breaking records. Both candidates are hoping that the debates will put the wind back into the sails of their campaigns. But like every campaign, this race has its own dynamic. And the deciding event of the 2020 election could come out of nowhere, a moment before Judgment Day.
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