Officials in Israel think that the future administration of US President-elect Joe Biden will have a very friendly working relationship with Israel, but could take a much tougher stance than the Trump administration when it comes to policies.
High-ranking officials expect the intimate working relationship between both countries systems to continue after Biden takes office in January. The Israeli and US defense ministries, militaries, and intelligence agencies have maintained close cooperation after previous changes to the US administration.
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As it did in the past, officials expect to see cooperation and coordination in intelligence and operations, as well as in research and development of various defense systems. An issue that has been a hot potato in Israel recently – maintaining our qualitative edge over other countries in the region – is expected to be secured in a recent understanding reached by Defense Minister Benny Gantz and former US Defense Secretary Mark Esper.
US military aid to Israel will also remain in place, although Israel has not yet reached an agreement with the US on what future IDF procurements will include.
However, officials in Israel are openly worried about what line the new administration will take on two main issues: Iran and the Palestinians. Biden has already declared the he would aspire to renew the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran from which the US withdrew under President Donald Trump.
While the prevailing assessment in Israel is that even Trump, if he had been re-elected – would have attempted to reach a nuclear agreement with the Iranians, there is concern that the Biden administration will agree to terms similar to those of the original deal, which was hammered out toward the end of Barack Obama's presidency.
While that deal did seriously delay Iran's progress toward nuclear weapons and limit its ability to enrich uranium and the amount of enriched material it was allowed to have, it also allowed Tehran to move ahead with research and development, and did not put any restrictions on ballistic missile or terrorist activity.
Officials in Israel think that these limitations to Iran's missile program and backing of terrorism must be preconditions for any new agreement. One senior official warned last week that if a new agreement were signed that did not include these restrictions, and allowed for the removal of sanctions currently in place against the Tehran regime, Iran might put its nuclear weapons development on hold but would be able to move ahead toward other goals – including rebuilding its collapsing economy and promoting widespread terrorism across the Middle East, especially in Syria and Lebanon.
As far as the Palestinian question goes, Israel's main concern is renewed international pressure to make territorial concessions, even though events of recent years have proven that the Palestinians avoid any dialogue and in effect block any attempts at progress in peace negotiations.
A few officials believe that if US policy shifts in that direction, it could prevent other Middle East countries from instating open relations with Israel.
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