Gideon Sa'ar didn't coordinate his resignation with his supporters in the Likud, those who voted for him in the party primaries like Yoav Kisch, Sharren Haskel, and Haim Katz. He did speak with a few of them afterward, and they all had the same thing to say: You're making a mistake. You have to fight for your home from your home. We won't be joining your New Hope party.
One exception was Sa'ar's loyal supporter Likud MK Michal Shir. Although Shir said she would be sticking with Likud, many party members believe the price of quitting the Knesset is simply too high at this point. As soon as another election is called, they believe, Shir will be given a top spot on the new party's list. The same is true of Yifat Shasha-Biton, another rogue Likud MK Sa'ar has in his sights.
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Sa'ar recovered from the blow he was dealt with by his former fellow party members fairly quickly, finding solace in the support of Derech Eretz members Yoaz Handel and Zvi Hauser. If Sa'ar's move this week was unexpected, Hauser and Handel's decision to join up with Sa'ar just a day later was far less so. Those two have been looking for someone to take them past the electoral threshold; Yamina party head Naftali Bennett was in no rush to take them in, while Sa'ar is thirsty for both the political platform and funding their party will provide in an election campaign.
Blue and White head Benny Gantz should slam the brakes on efforts to call an election, seeing as he is predicted to crash and burn according to the polls. The same is true of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu because Sa'ar's move could result in an alternative coalition being formed without him. Nevertheless, it's still hard to tell whether this will all end with an agreement or an election.
Bennett prefers to see the upside to Sa'ar's decision to run, but he is nevertheless aware of the risk. With Sa'ar, there's a better chance of forming a coalition without the Likud; two right-wing parties joining forces with two left-wing parties would be an easier pill to swallow, assuming they're able to garner 61 Knesset seats.
On the other hand, Sa'ar will be vying for Bennett's electorate – right-wingers who have had enough of Netanyahu. The Yamina head has gone overnight from being an enthusiastic proponent of early elections to someone who would rather see us hold off another round of voting for the time being. The way he sees it, Sa'ar's chances of wearing off on the Israeli public are greater than his. Time, if there is any, is on Bennett's side. Sa'ar beat Bennett to the punch when he enlisted Hauser and Handel to his cause. Although he had planned to poach at least one of them, by Tuesday night, even before their official announcement, he realized that that ship had sailed.
It's now Bennett's hope that Sa'ar won't gain too much steam and that current polling will be far from what we see at the polls come Election Day. He recalls his own experience forming the New Right – the overwhelming media support, the momentum that came too soon, and the great big flop at the moment of truth.
If former IDF Chief of Staff Gazi Eizenkot decides to join Sa'ar, though, this could change everything. Names like Hauser, Handel, and Shasha-Biton are good for party funding, but they aren't enough to bring in votes. Eizenkot is an entirely different story. The prestige of his former position could turn out to be a winning card, allowing the newly-formed party to rise to the status of the second largest party after the Likud and overtaking Bennett in the process.
Yesh Atid party head Yair Lapid can't be feeling too good about things at this point either. This week's events, and the infighting they have set off, have made the right-wing camp more relevant than ever and left the other camp out in the cold. If this situation holds, we may yet see Telem head Moshe Ya'alon abandon his alliance with Lapid and join one of the parties on the Right.
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