As the deadline for submitting Knesset lists draws nearer, last-minute talks on political unions and resignations are at a fever pitch. The political system was shocked by Avi Nissenkorn's decision to take a break from politics, alerted to The Israelis party head Ron Huldai's statement to the press, followed the internal moves led by Labor chief Merav Michaeli and her party's Monday primaries. The candidacies of Telem head Moshe Ya'alon, former Yesh Atid MK Ofer Shelach, and economist Yaron Zelekha, among others, meanwhile, remain in doubt.
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From Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's perspective, all this is trivial compared to his political agenda. His top priority is the national religious parties because his political fate and theirs is intertwined.
If the two parties to the right of the Likud fail to pass the electoral threshold, Netanyahu's chances of forming a government are seriously impaired. The key to a 61-member right-wing coalition passes through Yamina head Naftali Bennett and Religious Zionist Party chief Bezalel Smotrich. If one of them fails to make it into the Knesset, then his chances of forming a government are slim to none. Unlike the first of Israel's four recent elections, Bennett's party is looking pretty good. The concern is over Smotrich. The four Knesset seats he will garner could give Netanyahu the keys to the Prime Minister's Office for a few more years. In recent days, the premier has done everything he can to ensure that happens.
Netanyahu realized weeks ago that the best path to 61 seats was to split up the Right and distribute power between Smotrich and Bennett. Having convinced Hagit Moshe to run against Bennett confidante Nir Orbach for head of Habayit Hayehudi, Netanyahu was halfway there; but he couldn't afford to rest on his laurels just yet. The next phase: Ensure Smotrich passes the electoral threshold, and avoid wasting precious right-wing votes by providing radical Otzma Yehudit head Itamar Ben-Gvir with the political space that will keep him from making a hopeless run for Knesset.
Although both Netanyahu and Smotrich are interested in ensuring the Religious Zionist party passes the electoral threshold, they disagree on how to get there. Netanyahu believes there is no other choice but to bring Ben-Gvir into the fold; Smotrich thinks it will be easier without him.
Netanyahu will do everything he can to pressure all sides involved, from politicians to rabbis and anyone in-between, to achieve his goal. He is also willing to, once again, make use of his reserved slots within the Likud party slate to this end.
On the left side of the political map, what once looked like an extravaganza of wasted votes is now turning out to be the correct layout that will ensure the bloc maintain its status and its current number of seats. The parties expected to make it into the Knesset are Yesh Atid, Labor, and Meretz. All the others will likely need to either join forces or drop out of the race.
The only weak link in the anti-Netanyahu camp, then, is the Joint Arab List. Recent polls predict the faction will lose Knesset seats in the next election. According to reports, the Joint Arab List may even dissolve before the weekend is upon us. Netanyahu is also directing his efforts in that direction, and although he will find it hard to rely on Arab support for him at the polls, will continue to campaign for it nonetheless. The extent of the impact of his moves in the sector remain unclear. In the moment of truth, it may become clear to everyone, including those Arab lawmakers now sending out distress signals, that he never really had any influence on the sector to begin with.
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