Next month's elections may produce a political deadlock that could potentially plunge Israel into a fifth election, a poll by Channel 12 News found Wednesday.
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Were elections held at this time, the poll projected Likud would win 28 Knesset seats, followed by Yesh Atid (18), New Hope (13), Yamina (11), the Joint Arab List (9), Sephardi ultra-Orthodox party Shas (8), Ashkenazi Haredi party United Torah Judaism (7), Yisrael Beytenu (7), Labor (6), Religious Zionist Party (5), Meretz (4) and Blue and White (4).
The Economic party and the Arab Ra'am party are not expected to cross the four-seat electoral threshold.
The results make for an uphill battle for both political blocs when trying to form a coalition.
The Center-Left bloc has 61 seats, but those include the Joint Arab List's seats, and the faction is unlikely to join the government, especially one that includes Yisrael Beytenu and New Hope.
The right-wing bloc has 48 seats, and will need Yamina and at least one more faction – or parts of it – to secure a coalition.
Yamina leader Naftali Bennett has not ruled out joining a government under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu but has also gone on record that he wants to replace him. The results effectively make Bennett the kingmaker of the March 23 vote.
Gauging approval ratings, Channel 12 News found that 30% of respondents think Benjamin Netanyahu is best suited for the position of the prime minister: Some 23% favor Yesh Atid head Yair Lapid, 12% chose New Hope leader Gideon Sa'ar, 10% opted for Yamina leader Naftali Bennett, 16% said none of them should lead the country, and 9% said they had no opinion on the matter.
Also on Wednesday, Netanyahu attempted to allay the growing opposition within Likud as to the prospect of Otzma Yehudit leader Itamar Ben-Gvir becoming a minister in the next government.
The far-Right Otzma Yehudit has never before been elected to the Knesset. Ahead of the elections – and at Netanyahu's urging – Ben-Gvir formed a technical bloc with Religious Zionist Party leader Betzalel Smotrich. As the latter is expected to win five seats, this places Ben-Gvir within reach of a ministerial position.
Prior to striking an alliance with RZP, Otzma Yehudit joined forces with Noam, a radical Haredi faction.
In an interview with Channel 20, Israeli cable television's right-wing heritage channel, Netanyahu said that while Ben-Gvir, who subscribes to the radical Kahanist doctrine, will be a member of his future coalition, he will not be a part of the cabinet.
The prime minister noted that "Ben Gvir made a technical bloc with the Religious Zionism Party, so he will plainly be part of the coalition, as [former Otzma Yehudit MK] Michael Ben Ari was in the past."
The High Court of Justice banned Ben-Ari from running in future elections due to his extremist political views.
The March 2019 ruling, rendered in an 8-1 vote, marked the first time in the court's history that the candidacy of an individual, rather than party or faction, has been barred.
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