Only 62% of Israelis are certain they will vote in the March 23 election, a recent Israel Hayom-i24NEWS survey has found.
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The poll, conducted last week by the Maagar Mochot polling institute, has found that Orthodox voters are more determined to cast their ballot than their national-religious and secular counterparts. It further projected that the Arab sector will produce the lowest voter turnout.
The poll found that overall, 62% of Israelis are "absolutely certain" they will exercise their right to vote, 21% said they were "highly likely" to vote, 4% were "fairly certain" they would vote, and 13% are "unlikely" to vote in the elections.
Among Israelis who said they would "absolutely certain" they would vote, 86% said they would vote for Shas, 79% said they would vote for Likud, and – surprisingly – 77% said they would vote for the Economic party, which is not expected to pass the four-seat electoral threshold.
Further segmentation of the "sure votes" shows 73% plan to vote for Yisrael Beytenu, followed by Labor, Yesh Atid, Blue and White, and Meretz (71% each), the Religious Zionist Party (69%), Yamina (61%),the Joint Arab List (60%), United Torah Judaism (59%), New Hope (52%), and Ra'am (39%).
Some 49% of those who said they will vote said they have yet to decide who to vote for in two weeks.
With only two weeks left until Israelis go to the polls the parties are sparing no effort in courting every potential ballot slip.
Likud officials said that there could be as many as five "latent" mandates among undecided voters and believe a blitz of rallies headed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could go a long way. The Likud has allotted some 1 million shekels (roughly $300,000) for a campaign meant to shake its base into action.
Yesh Atid plans to continue presenting what the party calls the "sane alternative" to Netanyahu's government. Party insiders say leader Yair Lapid hopes to leverage what polls project will be an 18-19 seat win into 23-24 mandates.
New Hope has set up 150 branches nationwide with the aim of shoring up support. The party's status as the newest political player has polls giving it 11-13 seats, but with only 52% of its potential vase committed to it, those numbers are brittle.
Yamina plans to continue cementing leader Naftali Bennett's position as the one who could prevent Israel from plunging into a fifth election. As such, he is expected to remain true to his current line of ambiguity as to whether he would be willing to alight himself with either political bloc.
Shas, the Sephardi ultra-Orthodox party, seeks to maintain its current power in the Knesset, if not augment it. However, given the splits in the right-wing bloc and the animosity between Netanyahu, Bennett and New Hope leader Gideon Sa'ar – not to mention the challenges posed by the coronavirus pandemic – that may be easier said than done.
United Torah Judaism, the Ashkenazi Haredi party, has decided to opt for provocative moves to ensure voter turnout. Fueled by the controversial High Court of Justice ruling on non-Orthodox conversions and the growing demand that their communities be made to follow the government's coronavirus guidelines, UTJ announced on Thursday that it will "consider future cooperation with the decisions of the government and the corona cabinet."
Yisrael Beytenu is focusing its efforts on the secular electorate – its secondary base after Russian Israelis. The party is paying special attention to young and first-time voters.
Labor is at odds over leader Merav Michaeli's latest moves to whittle members who expressed support for Blue and White out of the party. Labor insiders said Michaeli seeks to shake up the party's image, to shore up support.
Blue and White has decided to go with the "no more Mr. nice guy" tactic, having realized that presenting party leader Benny Gantz as amicable was getting them nowhere in the polls. However, once Gantz began "scaring" the public about what will happen if the party falls below the electoral threshold, their numbers began climbing.
The Religious Zionist Party is placing an emphasis on its presence on the ground, with activists deployed across major intersections, bridges, and other prominent public places, as well as an aggressive ad campaign.
The Joint Arab List's three members, Balad, Ta'al and Hadash parties, are ca campaigning aggressively on the ground trying to ensure voter turnout. The party is facing a drop from 15 mandates to nine, but it believes that it will be able to attract votes from the Left.
Ra'am, which split from the Joint Arab List last month, seeks to position itself as a moderate alternative to the radical Joint Arab List. The party has been teetering on the brink of the electoral threshold, hopes its more pragmatic approach and potential collaboration with a future coalition would appeal to voters disappointed with JAL.
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