Anyone following Israeli news over the past week can easily conclude that Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas – a lawmaker with barely two years of parliamentary experience to his name and no successful private bills on his record – holds the fate of the government in his hands.
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A closer look, however, reveals that the dilemma Abbas is facing may soon lead him absolutely nowhere.
There is a difference between the political path he represents, namely the desire by over 70% of Arab Israelis to see their elected official truly influence Israeli politics on all levels, and Abbas's ideology, which is that of the Southern Branch of the Islamic Movement, whose leaders are highly unlikely to allow him to become part of a coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if it includes radical right-wing elemnets.
Founder of the Islamic Movement in Israel the late Sheikh Abdullah Nimar Darwish was a security prisoner in Israel. When he was released in 1985 he became a pragmatist and publicly opposed violence by Arabs Israelis. He fostered ties with many Jewish and religious leaders and, in the wake of the 1993 Oslo Accords, advocated for the Islamic Movement to register as a party in Israel and vie in the elections, meaning he was willing to recognize Israel and accept its political norms.
This, however, prompter a split in the Islamic Movement. The Southern Branch, of which he became the spiritual leader, has since advocated pragmatism and moderate policies vis-à-vis Israel, while the Northern Branch remained radical and was outlawed in 2015.
At the end of the day, it is the Shura Council – the Islamic Movement's council of sages – will have the final say and Abbas will have to follow its decree.
He is not without influence on the council but it is hard to believe the Arab clerics will simply let him endorse Benjamin Netanyahu as the prime minister. Doing so would jeopardize the Southern Branch's very existence across the entire Arab Israeli sector for one very simple reason: the majority of Arab Israelis hold Netanyahu personally responsible for a host of laws that harm them.
And did we mention Netanyahu's political partners? For Ra'am to join a coalition that includes Religious Zionist Party leader Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, leader of the far-right Otzma Yehudit party, is more than inconceivable – it's a betrayal of ideology and values, especially given the number of times Netanyahu and his minister had castigated them as "enemies of the state" and a "fifth column" seeking to "eliminate" the Jewish state.
Arab Israelis could tolerate a lot had Netanyahu and his governments over the years expressed a genuine desire to integrate them in government institutions and the decision-making process. Despite the fact that Netanyahu pushed through considerable investments in the Arab Israeli sector, its members expect the government to deal with burning issues such as crime and housing more seriously.
Any decision by Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas will eventually reflect his constituents' will. They want to influence Israeli politics and become a real part of it rather than a piece in a political tapestry stitch together to facilitate the formation of one coalition. Arab Israelis expect more.
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