In light of the political echelon's decision on the matter, and the progression of the Iranian nuclear program, the Israeli Air Force will begin training in the coming year for a possible airstrike in Iran. According to assessments, training for such a mission could take at least one year. Beyond the need for updated intelligence information and preparing several attack options, the IAF will also have to alter its force structure, how the forces are trained, aircraft maintenance, and even procure a considerable amount of spare parts for long-distance flights.
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It isn't a secret that in recent months IDF generals have rearranged their priorities to prepare for a credible attack option in Iran. This shift, as we know, has come after Israel abandoned its military preparations for such a strike in 2016, several months after Iran signed the nuclear deal with world powers, to focus instead on similarly pressing issues elsewhere.
In recent months, however, as America has lifted significant economic sanctions previously imposed on Iran, and Tehran has continued to develop its nuclear program without returning to negotiations, Israeli leaders decided to start planning again for a possible airstrike in Iran and allocated funds for the task.
The training plan was presented to Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi, who approved it, and the belief in the IAF, as stated, is that it will take at least one year, if not more, for the plan to become fully operational. The hope in Israel, in the meantime, is that another path will be found to either slow or stop Iran's march toward a nuclear bomb.
Meanwhile, Israeli officials have also noted that Iran is developing an advanced surface-to-air missile that it has already stationed in countries such as Iraq, Yemen and Syria, whose purpose, among other things, is to shoot down IAF planes, which according to foreign reports are active in the arena.
IAF officials also note that Syrian surface-to-air missile batteries have improved their performance, shortening their response time by 20% since 2017. With that, and despite the claims by Syrian state-run news outlets after each attack, their ability to intercept the weapons used by IAF warplanes is still exceedingly limited and non-disruptive.
Regardless, the IAF has changed its modus operandi, now carrying out broader and more comprehensive attacks each time so as not to require several attacks in the same location within a short period of time. At the same time, IDF officers also pre-plan the angle of the attacks to reduce the odds of errant Syrian surface-to-air missiles flying into Israel.
'More focused – looking eastward'
IAF officials also note the increased threat of drones, particularly Iranian drones located in several countries in the region, including Iraq and Yemen. Most of the details are classified, but it is known that these drones are capable of reaching Israel from thousands of kilometers away. The IDF intends to procure additional radar systems to contend with the new threat.
Additionally, the IDF intends to make 10 Iron Dome batteries operational in the near future and have several in reserve.
"The Middle East is a complex arena that changes at any given time," said IAF chief Maj. Gen. Amikam Norkin. "The challenges we face are only growing and therefore we need to be one step ahead of the enemy. The IAF trains routinely to be ready for a broad array of emergency scenarios."
Brig. Gen. Amir Lazar, head of the IAF's Training and Doctrine Division, addressed the plans for an attack in Iran.
"We are changing the work point and are more focused looking eastward," he said, adding that the IAF has the basic capabilities required to carry out actions in periphery countries, such as Iran. "From the ability to refuel [in the air] to the ability to work in isolation and in conditions of uncertainty – these are the things we practice every day. Hence we're not talking about starting from zero, rather a shift to improve certain capabilities."
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