The secular new year at our door brings old challenges, but also new hopes. For the world's populations, the end of December is an optimistic time of holidays, vacations, good wishes, and presents. The problem is that after Dec. 31 comes Jan. 1 – and then, usually, come the surprises.
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Who remembers, for example, that in December 2019 various systems (outside China) tried to predict the future without a single word about "coronavirus," which stormed onto the scene at the start of 2020 and turned all of us into mask-wearing citizens with the status of vaccinated, recovered, or – heaven forbid – a vaccine refuser.
So first of all, we'll wish us all good health and a long life, and exactly the opposite for COVID itself. Optimism is allowed, even if we are currently living in days of quarantine and mass spread. "The worse things are, the better they will be," according to a quote attributed to Vladimir Lenin. Why not this time, as well?
By the way, the virus itself only strengthened trends that existed in the world: China was the source of the evil, America was irresponsible, Russia wanted to remain relevant and is one of the only countries that produced a vaccine, and Europe is less and less relevant because of the clumsiness of the European Union when it came to the vaccination campaign. Africa, always colorful and beloved, is left behind, and nationalism has once again become a legitimate term – certainly not a bad word – because of COVID.
The upcoming Winter Olympics in Beijing, scheduled for February, are supposed to distract us from COVID somewhat (China taketh away, and China giveth), just like Carnival in Rio de Janeiro, which is happily returning.
Even the very untraditional World Cup, slated to take place in the Qatar desert in November-December, might make a contribution to the post-pandemic world. We said "might," because no one really knows.
Waiting for the baton to be passed
We are living in strange times. What used to be is not necessarily what will be, because the past is gone. Stefan Zweig and his book The World of Yesterday are more relevant than ever. Superpowers are in decline, and new powers are rising to take their place. Some European universities have even stopped teaching the ancient languages of Greece and Rome, and the level of interest today's young people have in the past means they don't know their Mamluks from their Milky Ways. It's the zeitgeist. There has never been such easy access to information, and we've never seen such a lack of interest in looking at things in depth. For millions of young people, even a 30-second video is becoming too long and tiring.
So where is our world headed, and us with it? The trends of this past year will only grow stronger, and the main arenas of the future will be Ukraine, China and Iran. That can only be bad.
Let's start with Ukraine – things are on fire there. Vladimir Putin, a man of the previous century who if it weren't for the laws of nature would be with us for a century more, wants to restore his country's days of glory. Putin sees Russia as the greatest country in the world, and not only in terms of territory. But there is no doubt that the Russian economy is faltering, which is making it difficult for him to go back to being the Soviet Union.
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But Ukraine is a battlefield on which Putin can prove to the world – he's here, he's alive and kicking, and invading. The predictable lack of an American response – and also a European one, and a response from the West in general – will send strong signals to the Chinese to get ready for the baton to be handed over in a ceremony that gets closer every year. The question many in the West are starting to ask is not "if," but when it will happen.
And China? It continues to grow stronger economically (see where it is compared to Russia) on the back of the US and at its expense. By the way, this might be one of the reasons why the Chinese aren't really in a rush. They haven't finished getting rich. But on Judgment Day, we'll wake up to see Chinese ships on the coast of Taiwan. The day that happens – it's all over. It's unlikely to happen in 2022, but this year will only bolster the developments. US President Joe Biden and former US President Donald Trump didn't agree about anything, except the Chinese threat.
This coming fall, China's Communist Party can be expected to hand Chinese leader Xi Jinping the reins for the third time (the first time this has happened since the death of Mao Zedong), so he can continue to entrench his country's status. Did you miss the cold war between the USSR and the US? Wait for the Chinese version.
A riddle with no solution
And of course, Iran. Washington is focused on the Chinese threat, and therefore withdrew from Afghanistan this year. It could also forgo the Ukrainian front, as well as the Iranian one. America is retreating willingly, and Iran, with its rich history, is waiting for the day it finally becomes a nuclear power. The nuclear deal everyone is talking about has almost become a goal, not just a tool. Remember, the goal is neither a bad deal nor military nuclear capabilities.
Biden's Washington, like Obama's, puts more faith in words than in actions when it comes to Iran. 2022 was a test year. The US mid-term elections in November should lead to a reversal in Congress, which might cause changes on certain points, but not a change of direction. American society is replete and tired, and more interested in gender definition than in punishing tyrants.
And where is Israel, as our world changes? There is no doubt that Europe, with its feelings of guilt, has contributed a lot, even if there were times when the Palestinians were exploited to prove that Jews aren't any better. America, of course, gave us all the help at a time when our shared values were a kind of supreme value.
But today, a new superpower has erupted into our lives, one that believes in total collectivism, in a world in which technology has never been so advanced. All this makes our future a riddle.
Just like with COVID – this time, the answers lie with China.
