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Home Special Coverage Coronavirus Outbreak

Israel could see up to 2 million COVID cases within 2 weeks, researchers warn

As number of new cases mushrooms, with patients hospitalized in serious condition for COVID doubling in a week, education minister determined to keep schools open.

by  Assaf Golan , Noam Dvir , Yori Yalon and Reuters
Published on  01-12-2022 13:00
Last modified: 01-12-2022 12:57
Israel could see up to 2 million COVID cases within 2 weeks, researchers warnOren Ben Hakoon

People wait for PCR tests at a branch of the Meuhedet HMO on Jan. 6, 2022 | File photo: Oren Ben Hakoon

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Israel's number of new confirmed COVID cases continued to spiral, with 43,815 new COVID cases discovered Tuesday, the Health Ministry reported Wednesday, after 12.09% of the over 326,000 tests processed Tuesday came back positive.

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As of Wednesday morning, nearly 100,000 students in public schools were in quarantine, 73,550 of whom had active or symptomatic cases.

There were 222,877 active or symptomatic cases of COVID nationwide on Wednesday.

A total of 254 people were hospitalized in serious or critical condition, of whom 63 were on ventilators and 12 were hooked up to ECMO machines, figures that have more than doubled in a seven-day period.

Israel's COVID death toll since the start of the pandemic stands at 8,274.

Nearly 4.36 million Israelis have received both doses of the vaccine and a booster shot, and 424,130 have received both doses and two booster shots.

A team of researchers from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem who are advising the Coronavirus cabinet presented on Tuesday updated models that show that if the current wave of transmission continues, Israel will see new cases peak at 800,000 to 2 million in approximately two weeks, with anywhere from 1,000 to 2,000 people hospitalized with serious cases. Some 2-5% of the serious cases are predicted to be children under 11, the researchers said.

On Monday, national coronavirus response coordinator Professor Salman Zarka warned that if more than 1,200 people were hospitalized for COVID at one time, the healthcare system would be unable to cope and a lockdown would be unavoidable.

Regional Cooperation Minister Esawi Frej told Ynet on Tuesday that Israel was heading toward herd immunity, adding that within three weeks, anywhere from 2 to 4 million people in the country should test positive.

On Tuesday, Israel cut the isolation time for asymptomatic COVID-19 cases from 10 days to seven, hoping to keep schools and the economy open as Omicron infections sweep the country.

People infected with the coronavirus and not suffering symptoms for three days can be out of isolation after seven days, the Health Ministry said in a statement. Those showing symptoms were required to continue to isolate for 10 days.

The decision came after a ministry study of 80 COVID-19 cases caused by the Omicron variant of the virus. Lab tests showed that the likelihood of virus growth after seven days of illness was 6%, the Health Ministry said.

"The study conducted by Health Ministry experts shows that the chance that an Omicron patient will be contagious after this period of time is very low. We will not impose isolation beyond what is required, in order to maintain health, keep the economy, education system and culture going and to maintain routine life alongside the coronavirus," Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz said.

Education Minister Yifat Shasha-Biton spoke Wednesday about her determination to keep schools open.

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"We are realizing more and more that it does immense damage to children, and we're now seeing the serious affects the lockdowns had on the kids. After a complicated year and a half and the mental health issues the students developed, we fought to start the school year on Sept. 1 despite criticism of the decision, and we made a commitment to keep school going for the sake of our children's emotional health and stability," Shasha-Biton said.

Despite the high numbers of COVID cases and quarantined students, Shasha-Biton said that "As of today [Wednesday], 90% of children are in school. I'm away of the problems and challenges. We are in difficult times and not everything is perfect, but we owe it to our children. I'll keep fighting for the 'Green Classroom' program to avoid needless quarantines," she said.

Meanwhile, healthcare officials warned Tuesday that Israel's Arab sector was poorly prepared for the Omicron wave.

A high-ranking official in the Arab healthcare sector in Jerusalem warned that the situation in the capital's Arab neighborhoods was about to "get out of control."

"In the morning, instructions say one thing, in the afternoon, another. There aren't clear decisions. The people at the top don't know how to manage things," the official said.

"People aren't buying home testing kits, or going to testing sites," the official added.

Arab communities in northern Israel appeared to be better off, although residents were still slower to respond to public health instructions than the general population in the rest of the country. The town of Shfaram has set up a testing site for members of any HMO.

Local officials said that they have seen increased demand for testing, and that messaging about COVID is consistent in schools.

i24NEWS contributed to this report

Tags: antigenCOVIDherd immunityOmicronoutreachPCRpublic schoolsquarantinetesting

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