Israel's political system is preparing for several possible scenarios following reports that former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the State Attorney's Office are engaged in talks to reach a plea deal. Neither side, meanwhile, has thus far denied the veracity of the reports.
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The first scenario
Negotiations reach a dead end and the sides fail to reach a plea bargain by next month when Attorney General Avichai Mendelblit is slated to conclude his tenure. According to speculation, in such a scenario the political landscape would remain virtually unchanged, with Netanyahu functioning as the primary force leading the Opposition. He will assuredly say he didn't sign a plea because he believes in his complete innocence and that the trial, as it is currently unfolding, proves that the State Attorney lacks sufficient evidence to convict him on the serious charges brought against him. The odds of this scenario unfolding are considered high.
The second scenario
Netanyahu will sign a plea deal, but this time it will force him to retire from political life. For many of the parties comprising the coalition, this isn't such a bad scenario. The left-wing parties have wished for Netanyahu's departure for years due to his considerable popularity in relation to the other players in the political arena, and such a plea would see their wishes fulfilled at long last.
The leaders of the right-wing parties in the coalition also won't shed a tear if Netanyahu resigns from political life. For some of them, such as Gideon Sa'ar and Avigdor Lieberman, getting rid of Netanyahu has become their primary ambition. With that, the person most likely to pay the price of a Netanyahu departure is Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who could lose his seat if Netanyahu is no longer a player on the political playing field.
The assumption in the political system is that the moment Netanyahu steps aside and the Likud holds primary elections, the new party chairman will work to establish a right-wing government strong enough to replace the current government, without requiring a general election. There are 65 right-wing MKs in the Knesset at present, who can be buttressed by parties such as Israel Beytenu, Blue and White, and maybe even Yesh Atid to establish a broad coalition at the expense of the current one. The odds of this scenario unfolding are also considerably high.
The third scenario
Another scenario with relatively high odds of materializing is that the various sides, including the future Likud chairman, won't be able to form a government while this Knesset is in session and will go to a general election. This scenario, too, is bad news for Bennett and his Yamina party, although from the perspective of all the other members of the coalition this wouldn't be entirely unwelcome. In an election without Netanyahu, the left-wing bloc can, for the first time in over a decade, present a candidate on equal footing to the right's candidate – which could be reflected in the election result and perhaps even lead to a victory. As of now, meanwhile, it appears the odds of an alternate government being formed during this Knesset are higher, as MKs will be reticent to disperse if another option exists.
The fourth scenario
On the other hand, a scenario with slim odds of occurring is that in the coming weeks the sides sign a plea deal and Netanyahu remains a player in the political arena. In such a scenario, the coalition could close ranks even more as its main threat, Netanyahu, will have put the indictment saga behind him and turn his newfound energies toward another run at the premiership. If this scenario unfolds, the pressure on the right to topple this government will intensify, as everyone who shunned Netanyahu due to his looming indictments will have to admit that the fact that he wasn't severely punished and wasn't found guilty of moral turpitude, indicates that from the outset the charges against him didn't justify the removal of a prime minister.
The attorney general's consent for a plea deal, which will allow Netanyahu to remain in politics without moral turpitude, is a clear admission that the cases against him are flimsy and incapable of withstanding the scrutiny of the court. This would open Mendelblit to immense public criticism and all but eliminate his chances of becoming a Supreme Court judge. The odds of this scenario unfolding, as stated, are slim.
The fifth scenario
This scenario, whose odds of coming to fruition are virtually non-existent, is that despite Netanyahu's resignation from political life, the current coalition will continue on its present path, Bennett will conclude his rotational term as prime minister, and Yair Lapid will replace him as planned. Unfortunately for Bennett, who desires this scenario more than anything, the odds of it actually occurring are slim to none.
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