The unusual travel advisory the National Security Council issued on Tuesday warning Israelis against traveling to Turkey, which according to media reports even included contacting dozens of individuals, shouldn't really come as surprise to anyone. Since the May 22 assassination of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Col. Hassan Sayyad Khodaei, Tehran has repeatedly vowed to exact revenge on Israel, which the Islamic republic has accused of the hit.
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A scenario by which Iran would target Israelis on Turkish soil is not far-fetched. Iran prefers to carry out extraterritorial operations in countries with which it has a land border as it facilitates the logistical preparations of such an operation. Moreover, in recent years Iran has managed to establish covert infrastructure aimed at abducting Iranian opposition activists lured to Turkey, and Iranian Quds Force operative Mansour Rasouli admitted he was ordered to target an Israeli diplomat there.
The relations between Iran and Turkey have suffered a significant blow by the recent Turkish rapprochement with Israel. Iran is leery of any country that maintains ties with Israel, especially when said country has a shared border with it. The already complex ties between Tehran and Ankara were further rattled by the latter's moves and that has made it easier for Iran to execute terrorist attacks on Turkey soil which, in turn, could compromise the cautions ties emerging between the two.
However, Iran's retaliation may not follow the "traditional" line of targeting Israeli assets overseas. The "score" Iran has to settle with Israel now includes the hit Khodaei and an explosion at Parchin military complex, which foreign media reports have attributed to Israel, as well as a series of other events, and this increasingly expanding list could force the Iranian leadership to seek another course of action.
Should Iran decide to retaliate directly against Israel, it would have a choice between its missile and drone abilities and its actions over the past year have proved it has the operational ability to carry out such plans.
The shadow war between Iran and Israel is taking place against the backdrop of the US-led efforts to salvage the 2015 nuclear deal. However, barring a serious escalating entailing a regional conflict, the prolonged Israeli-Iranian loggerheads is unlikely to impact the Vienna negotiations.
Either way, the public threats by high-ranking Iranian officials indicate that Tehran is committed to exacting revenge, so it is not a question of "if" but of "when" it decides to act. Israel's goal at this time is to foil these nefarious intentions.
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