The threat of a possible terrorist attack in Turkey hasn't been removed entirely, but the worst is behind us − most of the members of the cell dispatched to carry out an attack have been arrested, and their arrest can serve as an all-clear.
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The event was like a Turkish thriller. It began with specific intelligence from Israel, according to which the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps' intelligence apparatus had sent a cell of operatives to target Israelis in Istanbul. The cell included foreigners who had been recruited by the Iranians, as well as Turkish criminals – mainly drug smugglers.
Israel handed the intelligence over to the Turks immediately. Hotlines were opened between the two countries defense and foreign relations establishments. The issue became a top priority for Israeli and Turkish intelligence. It was clear that this was a clear and present life and death issue. Therefore, Israel made the rare decision to sound all the alarms. The prime minister, foreign minister, and defense minister all spoke publicly and warned about the threat, the National Security Council's Counterterrorism Bureau issued a rare travel warning, and media outlets were flooded with information designed to make it clear that the threat was an unusually serious and dangerous one.
When Israeli officials realized that most Israeli citizens weren't in a rush to cooperate and leave Turkey, the country began reaching out to them personally. Israeli tourists and businesspeople in Turkey began receiving telephone calls from security officials warning them to leave Istanbul, or at least spend as little time on the streets as possible. Some were even told they should move to different hotels if the ones where they were staying were considered at particular risk.
The Turks, for their part, had hundreds of their security people working on the issue, including intelligence officers and special forces who actively pursued the cell members, and many patrol police who bolstered security around tourist attractions in Istanbul and hotels where Israelis had been instructed to stay.
Israel said that the cooperation with Turkey had been unusual on every level and indicates not only the closeness of the two country's intelligence systems, but also the Turks' determination to ensure that their country does not serve as a staging ground for a terrorist attack.
At the end of last week, most of the cell members were arrested – Iranian citizens, by and large. At the same time, Israel published the name and picture of the Iranian behind the affair – head of the Islamic Republic's intelligence services, Hossein Taib. On Thursday, Taib was fired, most likely because of how embarrassed the Iranians were. Their embarrassment will increase once testimony from the cell members and their links to Tehran are made public.
Taib has been replaced by Mohammad Kazemi, a veteran commander in the IRGC, who will obviously be no friendlier to Israel than his predecessor.
We can assume that Kazemi will study Taib's failures and learn from them ahead of Iran's next attempt, which is just around the corner. Iran is more determined than ever to extract "payment" for Israeli airstrikes in Syria and for the deaths of high-ranking officials on its own soil, and will continue to make every effort to avenge them.
The Istanbul case, which was brought to a successful close, will soon reopen – either there, or somewhere else. The specific attack was thwarted, but the threat is still very much alive.
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