For the past week or so Iranian media kept reporting on the arrest of a "senior" official. Over the weekend it was announced that the official – who turned out to be former Defense Minister Alireza Akbari – was executed. These were summary judicial proceedings whose outcome was all but expected, with Akbari being accused of spying for the UK. But despite the Iranian claims and his British nationality, I believe there is another story altogether to this saga.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram
Akbari had been close to another former Iranian defense minister, Ali Shamkhani, who is now the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran. He is not your typical Iranian official, as he is considered an interlocutor for some in the West. For example, in 2021, he met in Iraq with CIA Director William Burns in an effort to jumpstart the nuclear talks.
Shamkhani is no liberal, but none exist in the higher echelons in Tehran. He is considered to be among the pragmatists, a group who have always worked behind the scenes to bridge the divide between various camps and interest groups. They don't have a set agenda – they want neither democratization nor ongoing strife. Their main goal is to ensure the survivability of the Islamic Republic. Due to his worldview, he also wields significant influence on various circles within Iranian society.
So why was his close contact eliminated? Reports from Iran indicate that in the runup to the execution, there had been attempts to form a new pragmatist coalition that would have Shamkhani as one of its main linchpins, along with former Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani. Such a coalition would challenge the existing leadership, especially in light of the latter's unsuccessful response to the "Hijab Protest" that erupted several months ago.
Iran's current rulers are the revolutionaries who seek a permanent clash with the world. But there is a significant number of people within the halls of government, including senior Iranian officials, who believe that this cadre of leaders is to blame for the unrest because they had insisted on disrupting the delicate equilibrium the pragmatists had achieved in Iranian life. Those senior pragmatists are convinced that the current Iranian regime is also responsible for the failure of the nuclear talks aimed at reviving the 2015 deal. They have noted the growing discontent and are preparing for the internal power struggles over who should lead it.
When will this battle over Iran take place? When Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei dies. He has advanced-stage prostate cancer at a very advanced stage. It doesn't mean that he is in his last throes, but his impending departure has been factored into the variety of considerations of Iran's wheelers and dealers on both sides.
When he dies, something unprecedented will happen in Iran: a selection process for a new supreme leader that will not be run from the top down. Khamenei was tapped as the successor to the founder ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini well in advance; he has led the country for the vast majority of its existence as a republic. But Khamenei doesn't have the same religious stature and political gravitas to preselect a successor.
Upon his death, a special constitutionally mandated body would convene to elect a new supreme leader: the Assembly of Experts for Leadership. This body comprises various alliances and coalitions that make Survivor: VIP look like a walk in the park. There is no way of knowing who will emerge victorious. Will the experts – senior clerics alongside political functionaries – opt for a pragmatist? Will they select another revolutionary? Alireza Akbari was executed, it seems, as a signal to Shamkhani and his camp that they better be careful in the critique of the regime and their jockeying for position.
What can we glean from this event? Mainly we can see the weakness and fear among revolutionaries currently holding the reins of government in Iran, and seeking continued conflict with the world. They are the ones who built a whole array of regional proxies for Iran and they are heavily invested in having those forces get continual funding. They know that large swaths of the public in Iran, including those who don't seek the Islamic Republic's demise, have a particular hatred toward them. More than anything else, Iranians clamor for a return to the global fold and to get the status they deserve.
The counteraction of the revolutionaries is ratcheting up the level of brazen violence. They have put on display their mafia-like traits toward their rivals. An effective dictatorship doesn't have to use force in the open; a dictatorship that resorts to such brutal public actions does so because it realizes it has no other option.
It's also important to keep in mind that the Islamic Republic is not a monolithic entity. There are sober voices who do not have Israel's destruction comprise part of their vision, and they definitely do not see to have regional domination. So long as the Islamic Republic is standing, we must be aware of those voices. Anyone who simplifies their enemy into a two-dimensional entity is bound to be defeated.
Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!
