Saudi Arabia can't rely on the United States to guarantee its security: That, put simply, is the message that the Saudis issued with their decision to renew diplomatic ties with Tehran.
The Biden administration's declining attentiveness to the Middle East, its Iran policy, and the arrogance Washington has displayed toward its allies in the region have all pushed Riyadh to formulate an alternative insurance policy in the form of entering under Beijing's umbrella, while at the same time also tightening relations with Moscow. This development symbolizes yet another stage in the weakening standing of the US in the region and the strengthening of the counter-axis led by China with partial Russian support.
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Even the most ardent supporters of a "diplomatic approach" in the White House will struggle to deny the extent of its failure thus far when it comes to Iran and the high price that the United States is paying as a result. Under Biden's watch, the ayatollahs have grown to feel immune. Iran is racing forward with its military nuclear efforts, continuing with subversive actions, and maintaining an aggressive policy through terrorist and militia proxies operated by the IRGC.
Poking a figurative middle finger in the eyes of the Americans, Tehran is supplying suicide drones to Russia to help with its war against Ukraine and is tightening military cooperation with Moscow. Iran is also preparing to send its tentacles to other arenas such as Latin America and northwest Africa where it hopes to stoke the conflict between Algeria and Morocco.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has contemptuously rejected the outstretched arm of Washington and its partners who have tried to revive the "nuclear accords." Iran's self-confidence has been boosted and it has taken full advantage of the naivete of the West and its lack of enthusiasm to grab the Persian bull by its horns.
The indifference displayed by the White House in the face of these developments and the way it has treated Saudi Arabia and its Gulf partners as if they were in its pocket, shortened the path between Beijing and Riyadh. Washington's pallid response to Volodymyr Zelenskyy's cries for help on the eve of the Russian invasion of his country didn't help either. It was against this backdrop and with the encouragement of China – which spotted an opportunity to fill the vacuum left by the downsizing of the American footprint in the area– that a path was paved for Saudi Arabia to renew ties with Iran.
"The end of American hegemony in the region," was how Khamenei's military advisor termed the renewal of ties between Riyadh and Tehran. The Lebanese Al-Mayadeen TV channel crowned with great satisfaction the US and Israel as the big losers from the move, and China as the big winner which will now be able to penetrate the Arab and Muslim world through the gates of both Iran and Saudi Arabia.
These forecasts should not be dismissed, but neither should they be seen as prophecies. The roots of hostility between Saudi Arabia and Iran are rooted in religion and ethnicity and these factors will not disappear as a result of one agreement or the other. Moreover, the US and the West can still influence the picture – especially in view of the legitimization that Iran continues to provide for them to intervene through its provocative behavior on the nuclear front and its involvement in the war in Ukraine.
From Israel's perspective, the Iranian threat remains as it was and therefore there is no room for it to change its approach and demands. Israel did the right thing by repeating over and again that its commitment to defend itself against a nuclear Iran is not dependent on external factors.
Given the statement by the Chinese last month regarding their support for a resumption of negotiations on the nuclear accords, the possibility that a resumption of talks could return to the international agenda either publicly or behind the scenes should be taken into account. Israel for its part should continue to push the US to declare the "death" of the Iran deal and put a credible military option on the table.
With regard to possible normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, it would seem that the chances have declined in the wake of the Tehran-Riyadh rapprochement, but Israel should not cease its efforts on this front. It may well be possible that the Saudis will see progress on normalization as a means of spreading its risk and as a balancing act vis-a-vis the United States and Israel; secondly, ties that have been built up would be maintained for any opportunity that may spring up further down the road.
Alongside all this, Israel should discuss with the US a series of immediate measures to be taken as a conclusion from events, among them the urgent need for the White House to invest resources in maintaining the Abraham Accords and to ensure the American and Israeli status in the region. For example, providing support for Egypt, completing the peace deal with Sudan, recognition of Moroccan sovereignty in the western Sahara, and bringing more countries into the normalization circle.
The lesson from developments is crystal clear: There is no such thing as a diplomatic vacuum; when the US is not actively present, it gives up its place to other forces!
Meir Ben Shabbat served as Israel's national security advisor and head of the National Security Council between 2017 and 2021. He is head of the Institute for Zionist Strategy & National Security, in Jerusalem.
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