With only ten days left until the Knesset recess begins, here are six possible scenarios as to how the future of the judicial reform might turn out.
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Bills are passed in the second and third readings, causing a constitutional crisis
The first possibility is that the Coalition will turn down President Isaac Herzog's outline for a compromise and ignore the protesters and calls within the Likud for negotiations, and continue to promote the first cluster of the judicial reform bills, bringing them for final approval within two weeks.
Video: Reuters
The legislation is likely to garner a majority and is expected to be voted into law.
However, even if the bills are approved, it is still unclear how the judiciary will react and whether the Supreme Court will strike them down. Theoretically, with the new law, the Knesset will be able to override the court's decision, although it is unclear whether that will be accepted by the judges, which could prompt a constitutional crisis.
The legislation is frozen, triggering a coalition crisis
Another scenario is that the Coalition yields and pauses the legislation until after the Knesset recess, which begins on Passover, opening the door for negotiations with the Opposition and as a sign of goodwill and readiness for talks.
The decision might lead to Justice Minister Yariv Levin, who is spearheading the reform, resigning from his position, triggering a crisis within the Coalition.
The ultra-Orthodox factions are not interested in pausing the legislation either as the conscription law is coming up for a vote in the Knesset soon, and is likely to be rejected, like its predecessors, by the Supreme Court.
The Coalition alters the legislation
Another possibility is that the Coalition pushes forward with the judicial reform, but adjusts the wording in order to mitigate the conflict.
This is a likely possibility as both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his associates have spoken of it in the past few days, given that Levin and the Haredi faction insist on completing the first batch of the bills before the recess begins next week, and given that no lawmaker in the Opposition is open to negotiating.
Protests escalate
There is also a danger of increased protests should the Coalition push forward with the reform as is. The Histadrut Labor Federation, for instance, can declare that the legislation will harm workers and shut down the economy. Industrialists too can decide on their organized ways to demonstrate.
In such a scenario, the government will need to regulate the fallout, either by changing the legislation or working to end the strike in other ways.
The legislation is paused due to a security escalation
Another development that might get in the way of the government getting the laws passed by Passover is a security escalation.
Based on remarks by senior officials in the defense establishment, including Defense Minister Yoav Galant, Israel is soon going to respond to the blast at the Megiddo Junction.
Although state and military officials have stressed that they are not interested in an escalation, things may spiral out of control, as it happened in such cases in the past.
This may directly impact the judicial reform, allowing Netanyahu to put it on hold without Levin resigning or the Haredi factions pulling out of the Coalition. It will also make negotiations with the Opposition possible.
The president's outline is revived
And lastly, although the Coalition has already rejected the president's plan for a compromise, the proposal might be revived and bring about some kind of agreement between the Coalition and the Opposition.
Herzog himself said a day after his proposal was revealed that it was not final, but rather a basis for talks that could develop if the parties are interested.
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