While the pressure to act in Gaza without harming the humanitarian situation is mounting even before a single soldier sets foot in the Strip, Israel, and the world have begun to ask what could happen to Gaza once the war's objective is met, namely, after the toppling of Hamas' rule in Gaza.
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Israel Hayom has learned that during the new War Cabinet meeting in which the decision was made to topple Hamas, the ministers decided not to address the question of what would happen next: Who will rule the Gaza Strip; what will this look like; and what Israel's role will be in that constellation. Although not discussed in that official, there are several scenarios that have been floated by former security officials and former senior ministers.
- Occupation and ruling over two million civilians. Although Israel has done this in the past, this would come at a high economic cost. Additionally, there are international considerations that might not allow Israel to consolidate its military control over that area.
- Clearing the area from Hamas and having the Palestinian Authority return to power there. In doing so, Israel would stop the division between the West Bank and the Strip that has been in place since 2007, which has weakened Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. This would give the PA some diplomatic leverage by giving it an opportunity to advance the two-state solution.
- A third scenario, which has come up among the abovementioned sources, envisions an international force managing the Gaza Strip with financial Arab support, similar to the Qatari aid to Hamas that had been in place until the hostilities broke out. This way, Israel would not need to deal with the post-war reconstruction of the area or its management.
- Ministers in the War Cabinet share the view that Israel will do the "mopping" of the area, leave it, and then respond in a pinpointed manner to any new military threat across the border without meddling in the internal affairs of governance.
- Dr. Mordechai Kedar, an expert on the Middle East, presented a different proposal known as the for the Strip even before the current war. According to his plan, the Strip would be divided into regions or "emirates," each ruled by a local civilian clan. If the question of governance remains open and fresh elections are allowed in the Gaza Strip, Kedar warns that a new Islamic entity could emerge, stand in elections, and win a majority. Thus, in a few years, we may face Hamas again in different clothing on our border.
Prime Minister Netanyahu said on multiple occasions that the occupation scenario (1) is not on the table. So, what is? One member of the War Cabinet told Israel Hayom that Israel "will not count its chickens before they are hatched," stressing the need to focus on winning the war first.
Former high-ranking officials argue that it is premature to discuss Gaza's future. "Hamas' surprise attack requires us to respond with force that will immediately restore deterrence, even if it leads to chaos in the Gaza Strip," a former security official. "Hamas did not take the Gaza population hostage; they elected it. Those who attacked Israel were not terror cells but a commando brigade of a large army. This point should be clear to anyone trying to artificially distinguish between Hamas and Gaza's residents," the former official stressed.
Meir Ben Shabbat, the former head of the National Security Council said several days ago that "under the current circumstances, the question of what will happen after is less important than what will not happen. The terrible price we paid for entering this war must lead to a fundamental change in the reality so that neither Hamas' nor its military capabilities threaten us."
The former head of the IDF Intelligence Directorate's Research Division Yaakov Department told Israel Hayom that "Israel is facing now a tough decision – inserting ground troops on a scale not seen since the (First) Lebanon War with the objective of destroying Hamas as a military organization. We might find ourselves fighting two fronts."
The optimal scenario for Israel right now is to finish its stated mission, without getting entangled in another front that weakens it in the south. Only then should we ponder the "what comes after" question, with a clear security objective: Israel must remain on alert and not allow a renewed military buildup to emerge on its border in Gaza ever again.
Finally, it is worth noting that at least one minister has already described the post-war reality in Gaza in practical terms. Gideon Sa'ar, a new minister in the War Cabinet, stated in an interview with Channel 12 News a few days ago that Israel must extract a territorial price from Gaza. Despite the fact that the issue has not been decided yet, Sa'ar presented a clear position that Israel should create an additional security buffer zone facing the Gaza border, saying, "At the end of the campaign, we need to extract a territorial price from Gaza, a security buffer zone to make sure that the other side realizes that starting a war means losing territory."
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