The hostages deal that the government voted to approve on Wednesday morning is a necessary step toward achieving the goals of the war. As always, it involves a compromise between hopes and dreams and the harsh reality, especially in the challenging reality imposed on Israel by Yahya Sinwar.
It would be a mistake to measure this deal in terms of good or bad. In the situation Israel found itself in Gaza after the October 7 attack, the only relevant terms are possible or impossible. Unfortunately, there is simply no better deal in the cards, one that would bring more hostages home. It was also impossible to strike a deal that would not have a relatively prolonged ceasefire and the release of security prisoners held in Israel.
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It was possible and even necessary to go to great lengths to bring the hostages, especially the children and women, back home. Claiming that Israel only gave and did not get anything in return is wrong. The US initially insisted that the first batch of hostages would be American citizens, and a similar demand was made by other foreign governments as well. Israel clarified that citizenship would not be the key to who gets released, and that this would be determined based on a different set of criteria. After prolonged and worldwide mediated negotiations, it was decided that the process would begin with women and children and that it would conducted simultaneously in a reciprocal manner: Hamas would release hostages as Israel released its prisoners.
Video: Dashcam footage
The formula that was determined – one Israeli captive in exchange for three Palestinian prisoners – is not exactly fair, but it is much better than the proportion in the last significant deal between Israel and Hamas: 1,027 prisoners in exchange for one Israeli soldier, Gilad Schalit. Let's hope that this formula will be maintained in the future, although it is likely that as the negotiations progress, Hamas will increase its demands, creating a dilemma for the Israeli side. The public needs to understand what concessions are involved, as the release of the worst of the terrorists imprisoned in Israel poses a threat not only because of the atrocities they committed in the past but also (and perhaps primarily) due to their future danger.
Assuming the agreement is implemented, the ceasefire will pose challenges for the IDF. In recent weeks, the forces gained momentum and pushed into Gaza. It was not done without a cost, but Israeli dominance was clear, placing Hamas in a precarious position, to the point of fearing complete loss of control north of the Gaza Strip.
In essence, the IDF still needs to complete the occupation of Jabalia Camp and subsequently several neighborhoods before being able to expand its activities to the south. The ceasefire will allow Hamas to gather forces, prepare tunnels and strongholds, and present a better challenge to the IDF once this phase of the deal is completed. The IDF will also need to find a solution to the provision in the deal that would prevent it from carrying surveillance flights in the skies of the Gaza Strip. Such flights are crucial for intelligence gathering and protecting forces and their extraction. Israel must ensure that Hamas does not exploit the situation to target forces or attempt to push back the Palestinian population northwards.
Hamas demanded a halt to flights so they could locate around 20 children, whose whereabouts are allegedly unknown. One can believe or not believe Hamas's claim that it does not hold a complete picture of the hostages, but either way, Israel must exhaust every chance to secure the release of its citizens. From the moment the IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi clarified that the IDF would be able to handle the challenges of the ceasefire, it was appropriate to sign off on such a concession.
Do not take your eyes off the prize
If Hamas brings additional hostages, it will receive additional prisoners and an extension of the ceasefire. Even in this case, defined ratios of exchange were established: an additional day for every ten hostages (and parallel release of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons). This gives Hamas the option of a prolonged ceasefire if it adheres to the graduated release process, presenting a significant challenge to Israel from the moment this stage of the deal is completed: Not only will the military campaign have to stop, but Israel will also have to increase its efforts to garner international legitimacy for its continued assault, which will likely dwindle when the hostages are released and the scope of the destruction in Gaza is exposed.
The difficulties should not cause Israel to hesitate about the next phase of the war. The release of the hostages, as mentioned, is a primary moral goal in itself, but its implementation only delays the attainment of the war's second over-arching objective – the defeat of Hamas.
Israel has already paid a heavy price in this conflict, and it may be less disturbed at this stage than what the world may say about it. Israel must, of course, do everything to help alleviate the pressure, especially in the humanitarian context. Still, it must not drop the ball – it must keep its eyes on the prize.
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