The meaning of the October 7 default is not only the loss of the lives of about 1,200 Israelis but mainly the potential transformation of how Israel is perceived in a regional-strategic sense. Namely, that is Israel would no longer be feared by Middle Eastern actors.
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In October 1973, the Middle Eastern fantasy of "throwing the Jews into the sea" was abandoned in the wake of the Yom Kippur War. In October 2023 – the Toyota and RPG gunmen from Gaza once again captured the imagination of the masses among the half billion Muslims surrounding the Jewish state, which comprises just about 10 million people. More and more people in the region think it's time to stop being afraid of Israel. This is a worrying development caused by the Oct. 7 attack.
In analytical terms, we may describe this as "a certain unraveling of Israel's deterrence in the region." This fear narrows Israel's flexibility regarding the outcomes of the campaign. Israel now needs a victory. Decisive victory. A draw would be a dangerous defeat.
The Israeli leadership must internalize that we can no longer be content with a "sense of victory" among the Israeli public. The focus must be on the feelings of the millions around us, who must have the Israeli victory seared into their consciousness. We must not create a situation where no one fears us in the region, as this would lead to chronic instability, which would ultimately lead to wide-scale bloodshed in the region. Anyone who wants peace and stability must strive for a clear Israeli victory at this time.
The task of defeating Hamas in Gaza is becoming more complex in light of the fact that the Israeli leadership refuses to set expectations vis-à-vis the Israeli public and our friends around the world.
The leadership has not provided clearly defined measures for achieving the goal of toppling Hamas, which should include (at the very least) the expulsion of the remaining members of the military arm, the demilitarization of Gaza from heavy weapons, and the holding on to long-term security buffer zones.
Video: Families of the hostages camp outside the prime minister's home / Yehonatan Shaul
The lack of clear expectations has resulted in the US increasing its pressure to end the war, and what's worse – it contributes to public and media pressure to downgrade the goals of the war to secure the release of the captives at any cost.
It is doubtful whether victory in Gaza is enough to restore the fear of Israel to the levels we had vis-a-vis our enemies. A victory that boils down to just the release of the captives and confidence-building measures to establish a Palestinian state would not be enough in shoring up Israel's image in that regard.
Even those who have subscribed to a governing paradigm over the past 30 years that has been based on the idea of Palestinian independence as a core component of Israel's security cannot ignore the implications of establishing such a state as a result of an Israeli military defeat in Gaza. This is not how deterrence is restored; this is not how one survives in the Middle East.
If the quagmire of the Gaza tunnels, US pressure, and the issue of the captives bring the leadership to the realization that there is no ability to present a clear victory on this front, one that will lead to a strategic change in the region, they must consider switching fronts and reasserting Israeli deterrence through the removal of the strategic threat in Lebanon.
Initiative and victory against one of the richest and most powerful terrorist organizations in the world, Hezbollah, can restore deterrence in the region in general, and vis-à-vis the pro-Iranian axis in particular. Israel cannot be satisfied with tactical achievements on both fronts while the axis of evil led by Iran enjoys huge strategic achievements and continues to establish a growing threat around Israel.
Israel must remove the threat from the north and dismantle the power structure Hezbollah has built in Lebanon regardless of the situation in the south; but without victory in the south, a significant achievement in the north becomes that much more important. It has become abundantly clear that removing the threat in the north is not a question of "if" but a question of "when." We are required to remove a clear and present danger in the north, and let us not be fooled – the withdrawal of Radwan forces beyond the Litani River would not make this threat go away.
Disrupt the Iranian plan
Israel must disrupt Iran's plans for a future major multi-front war against it at a time convenient for Tehran and when its capabilities mature. Waiting for the timing at which the Iranians decide to create such a flare-up would be a strategic mistake and would incur higher costs than the current confrontation. More than anything – we need to restore Israeli deterrence and fear of a determined Israeli response. In Gaza, we have not yet achieved this.
The October War must end with the strategic transformation that PM Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant committed to at the outset of the fighting. Strategic deterrence is more important today than current security achievements or revenge. We must not create a situation in which the failure of the IDF top brass and our political leaders to meet the challenge now would result in the current 8th graders facing the same security problems when they reach conscription age.
Today one cannot be content with anything less than victory, at least on one front. And if there is no victory in Gaza, it is time to prepare the public for a campaign in the north.
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