Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's once formidable political appeal appears to be showing cracks not seen before, according to an Israel Hayom poll.
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The poll, conducted by Maagar Mochot Institute, examined how many Knesset seats Likud would get if it were to run under a different leadership. It shows that if Nir Barkat were to become chairman the party would likely get 19 seats – the same as what Netanyahu would bring under that poll. If former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen becomes Likud leader, the party will strengthen and get 22 seats.
Compared to the previous Israel Hayom poll, published on January 12, there are several changes in how seats would be distributed between the parties. The State Party headed by Benny Gantz is projected to get 34 seats (compared to 31 seats in the previous poll), while Likud weakens to 19 seats (it got 21 in the previous poll).
Yesh Atid is projected to get 15 seats (down from 17 in the previous poll), Shas remains with 10 seats, Yisrael Beytenu picks up additional seats from the previous poll and stands at nine seats, the Religious Zionism party-Otzma Yehudit joint faction drops one seat to 13 seats, and United Torah Judaism remains with 7 seats.
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Ra'am strengthens by one seat to 5, Meretz remains with 4 seats, Hadash-Ta'al drops one seat to 4, and also in this poll, like in the previous one, the Labor party does not pass the electoral threshold.
The parties comprising the current Netanyahu-led Coalition would get 49 seats (compared to 52 in the previous poll), while the Opposition, together with the Arab parties would get the remainder 71 seats (68 in the previous poll).
Another takeaway from the poll is that only about half of Likud supporters (47%) would still vote for Likud today. Some 16% of them would vote for the State Party and 7% would support Religious Zionism. On the other side of the political map, about half of Yesh Atid voters (45%) would still for it if elections were held today, but 38% would vote for the State Party and other parties.
The poll examined scenarios in which other candidates would head Likud. Nir Barkat at the helm of the party would achieve 19 seats, like Netanyahu. In this case, 39% of Likud voters would continue voting for it, 28% of the remainder would move to other Coalition parties, while 3% would move to the State Party and 7% to other Opposition parties.
In the scenario where Barkat heads Likud, 4% of Yesh Atid voters would vote for Likud – as would 10% of Religious Zionism voters, 8% of Otzma Yehudit voters, 13% of State Party voters, 12% of Shas voters, 14% of United Torah Judaism voters and 6% of Yisrael Beytenu voters. In this case, the State Party would drop one seat. However, if Yossi Cohen were to head Likud, Likud would strengthen to 22 seats while the State Party would weaken from 34 to 30 seats.
In this case, 41% of Likud voters would continue voting Likud, and the rest of the party's voters would vote as follows: 26% would move to other Coalition parties, 6% would support the State Party and 4% would move to other Opposition parties.
In this scenario, 6% of Yesh Atid voters would switch to voting for Likud –- as would 3% of Religious Zionism voters, 2% of Otzma Yehudit voters, 16% of State Party voters, 6% of Shas voters, and 18% of Yisrael Beytenu voters.
The poll also examined a scenario in which a party headed by both Naftali Bennett and Yossi Cohen would compete in the Knesset elections. The survey findings show that in this case, the two would take many votes from several parties.
A Bennett-Cohen list would draw 23% of State Party voters, leaving it with 23 seats. Likewise, 23% of Yisrael Beytenu voters would shift to the new party, resulting in Yisrael Beytenu dropping to 7 seats, while 18% of Yesh Atid voters would also vote for the duo, resulting in the Yesh Atid getting only 10 seats.
Under to the same scenario, 9% of Likud voters would prefer to vote for the two, resulting in Likud dropping to 13 seats. Likewise some 8% of Religious Zionism voters will leave the party in favor of Cohen and Bennett, leaving it with 5 seats, while Otzma Yehudit would get 7 seats due to 3% of its voters preferring Bennett and Cohen.
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