The fighting in Gaza will likely reach a key moment this week. It will be significant for Israel as well as for Hamas. What unfolds will largely determine how things will unfold in the following weeks and perhaps even the months that follow.
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Hamas has to decide whether to give the green light to advance the deal to release the captives in exchange for security prisoners held in Israel. Over the weekend, there were reports of a dispute between Hamas' leadership in Gaza, led by Yahya Sinwar, and its political bureau abroad, led by Ismail Haniyeh. The Gazan faction wants a deal now; abroad they are conditioning it on a complete cessation of fighting.
If these reports are correct, they are encouraging. This shows that Sinwar and the leadership around him are tired of the fighting and need a respite. Israel will presumably argue that this indicates that they are affected by the military pressure, and perhaps also fear for their lives, and hope that the truce will allow them to recover and build up strength for the continuation of the fighting. Those who oppose the deal will say that it must not be stopped right now: A little more pressure, they will say, and Hamas will buckle
The assessments of professionals point in another direction. Hamas is far from collapsing. While the IDF is putting heavy pressure on it in Khan Yunis, it has yet to strike the organization's senior officials. The IDF has also been operating again in recent days in the northern strip, but Hamas is showing signs of renewed rule there – its policemen are once again patrolling the streets. In any case, Rafah and the Philadelphi Axis (the Gaza-Egypt border) have not yet been dealt with, so at least a few more months will be required until the Gaza campaign is completed.
No one in Israel can guarantee that the captives will hold out for so long. The opposite is true: The way things are going suggests that the closer the IDF gets to the captives, the greater the danger to their lives will become. There is considerable evidence indicating that Hamas people holding the captives have been instructed to kill them if they sense danger, and in any case, given the poor conditions in which the captives are held – lack of medicine, food, sleep, and sanitation – there is a constant danger to their health, certainly in the harsh winter conditions.
In Israel, a decision has already been made to go for a deal. The question is at what price? One thing is already clear: For every captive released there will be a day of ceasefire, initially 35 days (and another week to discuss continuing the process), and a maximum of 143 days, if Hamas releases all the captives, alive and dead, that it holds.
The other issues have not yet been agreed. As mentioned, Hamas' leaders abroad want the campaign to end. Israel has made it clear that this will not happen. What will happen? Cessation of certain activity (including flights), exactly as the previous truce unfolded in November. The IDF has already made it clear that it will be able to resume combat operations once a deal is implemented, although the respite will have costs by letting Hamas rehabilitate and redeploy its people on the ground. On the other hand, the truce will also serve Israel by allowing a reinvigorate its troops, demobilize reservists and service armored combat vehicles, and perhaps also return many of the evacuees to their homes, including in the north (if Hezbollah joins the ceasefire, as it did in the previous round).
The main challenge will be to find a way to find a formula for how many and which security prisoners Israel will release. Hamas will want to get as many as possible, including the most deadly terrorists. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already made it clear that thousands of prisoners will not be released, and there is also opposition to releasing prisoners who participated in the murder of Jews (with blood on their hands). Even if Israel overcomes this obstacle now, it will stand before it later when it is required to release the rest of the captives, especially the soldiers and security teams captured.
As prime minister, Netanyahu signed the Schalit deal, under which 1,027 prisoners were released, including 450 murderers (with Sinwar himself who feels obligated to release his prison comrades who were left behind). It is very unlikely that he will compromise on this, and the dilemma that will face the government will be difficult and with explosive potential not only regarding the continuation of the war, but also for families, the public, and even the future of the government.
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