The US is pressing European allies Britain and France to abandon plans for Iran to be censured at the upcoming International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meeting in June for its lack of cooperation and prohibited nuclear activities, according to the Wall Street Journal, apparently to avoid disruption with Iran before the US elections this November.
These divisions come as a new IAEA report revealed Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium has reached unprecedented levels. The UN nuclear watchdog stated on Monday that Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium rose over 20 kg (45 pounds) in the last three months to 142 kg (313 pounds) – its highest level yet. US officials say that material could be converted into weapons-grade enriched uranium within days.
The rift exposes differences in approach that have emerged since the Trump administration withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal in 2018. Europeans were strong supporters of the accord, which lifted sanctions in exchange for temporary nuclear constraints on Tehran. They sought to preserve the deal even after the US exit, while the Biden administration made reviving the agreement a top priority upon taking office in 2021.
But those diplomatic efforts collapsed in August 2022 when Iran hardened its demands as negotiations faltered. Since then, US officials have sought to contain escalating tensions with Tehran. European diplomats now accuse Washington of lacking a coherent strategy and appear unwilling to either seriously engage Iran in new diplomacy or take punitive steps over its growing nuclear program.
The divisions have raised alarms in European capitals that the window is closing to rein in Iran's atomic work through non-military means. There are increasing Western fears that Iran, already considered a nuclear threshold state, may be positioning itself to acquire weapons capability. While Tehran insists its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, it has significantly reduced IAEA oversight and stonewalled investigations into previous undeclared nuclear materials and activities.
European diplomats argue that failure to censure Iran at the IAEA would undermine the agency's authority as the nuclear watchdog and erode Western credibility in confronting potential proliferation risks. They contend it is time to take a firm stand against Tehran's continued defiance of non-proliferation obligations.
But the US fears an IAEA censure could prompt Iranian retaliation and further limit inspectors' access, as occurred after a 2022 rebuke. With Russia and China likely to veto any push for new UN sanctions, a failed censure vote could deal a major diplomatic blow that emboldens Iran's nuclear intransigence.
#BREAKING Multiple EU countries including Germany are pushing to classify the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization on the basis of a German court ruling, diplomats tell dpa.
— dpa news agency (@dpa_intl) May 27, 2024
The Biden administration argues that European powers could do more to economically pressure Iran, like cutting off its banks still operating in Europe and designating the Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization. The German dpa News Agency reported on Monday that Germany and other European nations are advocating for the EU to designate Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization, as per a recent German court ruling. However, diplomats noted that "such a terror listing would be primarily a symbolic step because there are already EU sanctions" against the IRGC. For now, US officials recently held rare indirect talks with Iranian counterparts in Oman in a bid to reduce regional tensions.
Ultimately, experts suggest any censure of Iran's nuclear activities should be part of a broader negotiating strategy of both disincentives and incentives to alter Tehran's behavior. "The board needs to send a message that there are consequences for stonewalling," said Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Control Association. "But it needs to be part of a broader strategy to pressure and incentivize Iran to cooperate with the IAEA."
