In the shadow of escalating conflict with Hezbollah, Lebanon finds itself in mounting internal tension. Yet, the pro-Iranian organization faces an opposition camp that fails to truly challenge it. Politically, the main opposition to Hezbollah includes the Maronite Christian parties, some of which maintain militias. However, over the years, Hezbollah has forged alliances with pro-Syrian Christians, effectively controlling the government with their help.
Even the 2022 elections, where Hezbollah's coalition lost its majority, failed to bring about the desired change. Without Hezbollah's partners, the opposition couldn't form its own coalition. As for Lebanese Druze, they have chosen to align with Hezbollah's narrative regarding the Majdal Shams killings, preferring to call for an "international investigative committee." Walid Jumblatt, the country's prominent Druze leader, even falsely claimed that Israel is promoting a "civil war." This stance stems from the Lebanese Druze being a small and vulnerable community, especially compared to Hezbollah. This paralysis has left Lebanon without a president for almost two years.
The issue greatly hinders the country's decision-making process, as the acting president is the Sunni caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati. Besides him, the Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, head of the Shiite Amal Movement, wields considerable power. The two are long-standing political allies of Hezbollah who do not challenge it. Militarily, Hezbollah is the most significant force, despite the Lebanese Army having more soldiers on paper. While Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah claims to command a force of 100,000 men, there are conflicting estimates regarding this figure.
Some believe the array includes no more than 50,000 men, including reservists, while others think Nasrallah's words are just the tip of the iceberg. Either way, Hezbollah enjoys trained forces, advanced weapons, and strategic capabilities that the Lebanese Army can only dream of: tunnels between the country's south and east, and launch tunnels; a missile precision project including 250,000 munitions; several thousand of them precise (according to the Alma Research and Education Center); air defense systems and an elite unit – the Radwan Force.
In this situation, President of the Lebanese Forces Samir Geagea's militia, estimated to include at best ten thousand men, stands little chance. Therefore, his declarations, who just several days ago called the pro-Iranian axis "a cancer striking the country," remain of limited value. Nevertheless, Geagea sheds light on Hezbollah's difficult situation. "If the war ends now – as it began without warning – then the price we paid is more than 500 Lebanese deaths. In addition to many villages completely destroyed. Not to mention losses in billions of dollars. All these things for nothing," he said. A perspective from the ground.
