The legal confrontation between Justice Minister Yariv Levin and the Supreme Court judges is a monumental story. If not for Israel's whirlwind of events – including war casualties, a historic preemptive strike, tensions on the northern border, hostage rescue operation, and ongoing negotiations – this legal clash would be dominating headlines and bringing legal experts back to the spotlight, reminiscent of the judicial reform debates pre-war. While much has been said about the legal aspect, there's an equally significant political dimension reshaping the power dynamics within the ruling Likud party.
Setting aside Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant, it's rare to hear criticism of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu within Likud. In the immediate aftermath of Oct. 7, when shock, grief, and the devastating impact of the attack caused tempers to flare, some believed Netanyahu's career was over. But as time passed, the intermingling of protest movements with issues like the prolonged war and hostage negotiations reunited Likud members around Netanyahu.
The factions within Likud have shifted. They no longer revolve around individuals but rather around stances. The party is split between Levin's hardline stance against the Supreme Court and those who either disagree or refrain from publicly backing his fight.
If there's one issue on which Netanyahu faces criticism within Likud, it's the judicial matter. Many in the party believe Netanyahu isn't engaging enough with the justice system and isn't expressing a strong "Levin-esque" stance against the judges. A prime example is the judge appointment process, which Levin is managing alone against the Supreme Court. Netanyahu is absent, both due to his conflict of interest regarding judicial appointments and his focus on the war.
Levin holds significant sway within Likud, as evidenced by receiving over 50,000 votes in the primaries out of 80,000 voters – an impressive showing. Ironically, the only one who can lead criticism against Netanyahu is Levin, his closest ally, most politically aligned, most loyal, and devoid of any desire or intention to threaten or replace him.
Levin is frustrated with some of his party colleagues. He's convinced that with 64 united votes on the judicial issue, he could prevail over the judges. His colleagues' failure to stand behind him leaves him without leverage in negotiations with the judges. His hand is forced. If he had 64 votes, he could tell the judges to compromise or face legislation. But Levin lacks those votes, and the judges know it and have no intention of compromising.
Levin's criticism infuriates his opponents within the party. "He's lost perspective," they say. "Should we blindly follow his whims? The first time, he unilaterally decided to face the cameras, hold a press conference, and announce the judicial reform. He didn't consult us, didn't talk to us, didn't prepare us, and it's doubtful the prime minister even knew. He caused tremendous damage and then got angry when we didn't stand by him. He's doing the same thing again. If he wants to advance something and wants our support, he should convene a meeting, present the issue, hear our input, and we'll decide together."
Levin is familiar with these arguments and dismisses them. In his view, public pressure must be applied, demanding that everyone elected by right-wing votes unite as one. Levin is willing to accept the position that legislation shouldn't move forward without consensus, though he disagrees with it. In recent months, he has discussed the matter with some of his party colleagues. He believes that when he proposed a compromise, he should have received his colleagues' backing, expecting them to say that if the court doesn't accept the compromise, they would stand firmly behind Levin. This, of course, didn't happen.
Who will win? It's a complex question, and the answer must be divided into two. Legally, Levin will likely lose. Those who don't stand by Levin's side won't change their stance, certainly not against the Supreme Court. Politically? Levin may come out on top. It's not far-fetched to bet that Levin will continue to climb high in the next primaries, while others will drop in their positions, and some might find themselves outside the next Knesset altogether.
