According to reporting by the Financial Times, Israel has claimed a major victory in its ongoing conflict with Hezbollah, announcing the successful assassination of the group's leader, Hassan Nasrallah. This development marks a significant turning point in a decades-long struggle, attributed to a dramatic improvement in Israel's intelligence capabilities.
On Friday night, the Israeli military reportedly tracked Nasrallah to an underground bunker in south Beirut, dropping as many as 80 bombs to ensure his demise. An Israeli F-15i pilot boasted, "We will reach everyone, everywhere," highlighting the precision and determination of the operation.
This success follows previous failed attempts to eliminate Nasrallah, including three unsuccessful strikes during the 2006 war with Hezbollah. The recent operation's success is credited to a substantial reorientation of Israel's intelligence-gathering efforts, initiated after the 2006 conflict exposed significant weaknesses in their approach.
Miri Eisin, a former senior intelligence officer, explained the shift in Israel's strategy: "You have to define, in that sense, exactly what you're looking for. That's the biggest challenge, and if done well, it allows you to look at this in all its complexity, to look at the whole picture."
Israeli intelligence had for nearly a decade referred to Hezbollah as a "terror army," rather than as a terrorist group "like Osama bin Laden in a cave," Eisin added. This conceptual shift forced Israel to study Hezbollah as closely as it had the Syrian army and led to developing a dense "intelligence picture," detailing Hezbollah's operations, leadership structure, and vulnerabilities.
The war in Syria provided Israel with a wealth of data on Hezbollah. As the group deployed to support Bashar al-Assad's regime in 2012, it became more vulnerable to infiltration. Randa Slim, a program director at the Middle East Institute in Washington, noted, "Syria was the beginning of the expansion of Hezbollah. That weakened their internal control mechanisms and opened the door for infiltration on a big level."
Yezid Sayigh, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center, described how Hezbollah's involvement in Syria affected the organization: "They went from being highly disciplined and purists to someone who [when defending Assad] let in a lot more people than they should have. The complacency and arrogance was accompanied by a shift in its membership. They started to become flabby."
Israel's intelligence agencies capitalized on this opportunity, employing technological advancements, including spy satellites, sophisticated drones, and cyber hacking capabilities. The IDF's 9900 Unit employs algorithms to sift through terabytes of visual data, identifying subtle changes that might indicate Hezbollah activities or infrastructure.
The patience and persistence of Israeli intelligence efforts appear to have paid off. Over the past 10 months, Israel and Hezbollah engaged in cross-border exchanges, with Israel gradually expanding its operations. This deliberate approach may have lulled Hezbollah into a false sense of security regarding the conflict's boundaries.
However, the recent escalation, culminating in Nasrallah's reported death, suggests a significant shift in Israel's strategy. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, speaking at the UN General Assembly, rejected the notion of a ceasefire with Hezbollah and vowed to continue Israel's offensive.
Despite this major blow to Hezbollah, experts caution that the conflict is far from over. Eisin remarked, "Hezbollah did not disappear in the last 10 days. We've damaged and degraded them, and they are in the stage of chaos and mourning. But they still have lots of capabilities that are very threatening."
Nasrallah's legacy is complex. His supporters remember him for standing up to Israel and the US, while his enemies consider him the leader of a terrorist organization that furthered Iran's geopolitical agenda. In Lebanon, Hezbollah under Nasrallah was often referred to as a state within a state, with many Christian and Sunni communities blaming him for eroding state institutions and prioritizing Iran's interests.
Born on August 31, 1960, in an impoverished Beirut district, Nasrallah rose to become a powerful figure in the region. His death marks the end of an era for Hezbollah and potentially reshapes the dynamics of the ongoing conflict between Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah.
