At this very moment, the world's eyes are turned to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, where the first high-level discussion between American and Russian officials is taking place since President Vladimir Putin ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly three years ago. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that after the initial phase, Europe would be involved. However, another question occupies many minds: How did the city that was long considered the capital of the world's most conservative state transform within a few years into a center of international diplomacy and business?
In June 2012, Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud was appointed crown prince following the death of his brother Nayef, and in January 2015, he became king after the death of his half-brother, King Abdullah. At age 80, the king gradually transferred the reins of power to his favored son Mohammed, appointing him prince shortly after, changing the succession line from horizontal (brother to brother) to vertical (father to son). Mohammed, known by his acronym MBS, who was less than 30 years old at the time of appointment, is essentially the face of change.
"Agenda 2030" is his manifesto – a plan to transform the nation's character by 2030 through reducing dependence on oil (Saudi Arabia is the world's largest producer), opening the economy to new technologies, and introducing women (who were previously invisible) into the workforce and society. By 2025, Prince Mohammed has already succeeded in some of his missions. Saudi Arabia today is barely recognizable compared to what it was 10 years ago. Unlike before, all Western nations now stand in line to take a small part in its meteoric development.
The change is not just cultural and economic, but also primarily about image. The new Saudi Arabia manages to market itself as more liberal and democratic, but in practice, it remains very similar to the old Saudi Arabia. It is well known that MBS' impressive results were achieved through the elimination of his opponents. In recent years alone, hundreds of opponents, economists, and journalists have been arrested. The most publicized case was the assassination of famous Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Istanbul consulate by individuals close to Prince Mohammed.
Regarding its relations with the United States, Riyadh has always maintained close ties with Washington. However, despite condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in recent years Saudi Arabia has also maintained friendly relations with Vladimir Putin, partly thanks to connections forged within OPEC – the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Through this network of relationships, Saudi Arabia has become the official mediator for prisoner exchanges between Russia and Ukraine, and between Russia and the United States – a critical and unique role that no other nation has achieved.
Indeed, Saudi Arabia is undoubtedly the most surprising yet strategic country for these talks. First and foremost because it has managed to maintain its hybrid geopolitical character between Russia and the United States, therefore being perceived by both sides as friendly territory, or at least not hostile. For Russia, the possibility of meeting in a country not associated with NATO – and one that did not join Western sanctions – is much more acceptable than meeting in Europe, for example. Similarly, the United States sees Saudi Arabia as a reliable mediator that maintains its status as a long-term ally.
Additionally, from a logistical and security perspective, Saudi Arabia can ensure discretion and control over the event. Riyadh can host both delegations far from the Western press's eye, which suits the sensitive and discreet nature of both Russia and the United States very well. It's also worth remembering that the Saudis already played an active role in the Ukraine war when in summer 2023 they hosted an international summit in Jeddah on the Ukrainian peace plan, attended by several world powers committed to the cause.
However, as mentioned, Riyadh's involvement is not without interests. On the contrary, it aligns with the broader Saudi strategy to upgrade its status as a global diplomatic hero. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman sees the high-profile negotiations as an opportunity to strengthen the kingdom's international image as a participant in peace and stability. After years in which Saudi Arabia was often associated with conflicts or human rights disputes, now MBS wants to present his country as part of the solution to global crises. Perhaps he, just like Donald Trump, dreams of a Nobel Peace Prize.
