Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is currently reaping the rewards of his patience. While the US would like to couple normalization with Israel and its ties with the kingdom, the Trump administration is playing by its own rules. At least one benefit that had been reserved for the post-agreement period is now set to be delivered to the crown prince without requiring him to take any risks or extend any gestures toward Jerusalem.
The prince has long sensed which way the wind is blowing in the Middle East. Israel may be waging a just war against the terrorist organization Hamas in Gaza, but it is paying a steep diplomatic price. Public opinion in Arab states has grown more hostile than ever, and no regional leader is eager to go against the tide. For bin Salman, the risks he has already taken with his economic and social reforms seem more than sufficient for now. After all, the conservative factions in the kingdom are already recoiling almost weekly at the sight of music concerts across the "Land of Islam."
Moreover, the new powerbrokers in Washington are less interested in Israel when it comes to their economic interests. Earlier this week, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright met with Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the crown prince's brother and the kingdom's oil minister. After the meeting, Wright briefed local journalists on a budding agreement between the two countries in the energy sector. The plan includes support for Saudi Arabia's civilian nuclear project and cooperation in mining and mineral processing. Wright also revealed the rationale: "Under Trump's leadership, we're almost certain to see lower average energy prices over the next four years compared to the last four."
But economic interests are not the only thing driving the Americans into the Saudis' open arms. There's also a clear-eyed assessment of the global stage. Saudi Arabia maintains close ties with Pakistan, a large Muslim nation with a nuclear arsenal. Security delegations frequently shuttle between Riyadh and Islamabad, meeting with top-level officials.
Furthermore, rival superpower China is also seeking new opportunities in the Middle East, especially in the energy sector. In other words, bin Salman has more than one alternative for assistance. The Americans are aware of this and are unlikely to wait for the Israelis.
Back in January, the Saudi oil minister disclosed the kingdom's intent to capitalize financially on its mineral reserves, including uranium. He announced plans to enrich and sell uranium and even to produce "yellowcake" (uranium powder), a material used in making fuel for nuclear reactors. While Riyadh stresses that the goal is merely to diversify its energy sources, the crown prince has made it clear—on more than one occasion—that if Iran breaks out to a bomb, Saudi Arabia will have no choice but to develop its own nuclear weapon.
Dr. Faisal Al-Faqeeh, a former energy research director, shed light on Saudi Arabia's long-term strategy during an appearance on Saudi TV. "In 2016, I asked Mohammed bin Salman at the 'Saudi 2030' summit about the future of renewable energy. He reminded me that the kingdom holds 6% of the world's uranium reserves. Naturally, countries like the US will want to be commercial partners in building a peaceful nuclear energy infrastructure."
He added, "We must remember that Saudi Arabia is the largest energy consumer in the Middle East and home to the region's biggest electric company. Each day, about one million barrels [of oil] are burned to generate electricity. That's why we need gas, renewable energy sources, and also nuclear energy."
According to the Saudi expert, the kingdom's policy has remained stable despite the change in US administrations. Still, he acknowledges that the leadership transition played a role. During the visit of former Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm last year, nuclear energy projects weren't even mentioned—the discussions were limited to climate crisis issues. It's no surprise that the new secretary, Chris Wright, is eager to advance the sector. Like many senior figures in the current administration, he comes from the business world, having served as CEO of Liberty Energy, one of the largest oil and gas companies in the US. In his view, there's no such thing as "unclean energy."
