The US Air Force's precise strike on Iran's Fordo enrichment site – a pivotal moment in Operation Rising Lion – inflicted substantial damage on Tehran's nuclear infrastructure. Yet, Iran's nuclear aspirations endure. The expertise, pre-emptively relocated enriched uranium, and concealed capabilities give Iran the potential to restore its program or pursue military-grade enrichment. Tehran shows no sign of bowing to US demands, and its next steps will determine Washington's role in the ongoing conflict. Only a diplomatic accord can effectively halt Iran's nuclear resurgence.
The impressive US Air Force strike on the Fordo enrichment site was significant due to Israel's limited ability to effectively target the site. However, assessing the strike's outcomes remains challenging, and even if it significantly damaged Fordo, Iran's nuclear program has not been fully destroyed.
It appears that before the strike, Iran – as it claims – concealed significant capabilities, likely including enriched material from the enrichment site itself. This, combined with Iran's extensive knowledge, makes rebuilding the program or advancing toward weapons-grade enrichment (90%) a feasible step for Tehran's leadership, despite the heavy damage to the nuclear program.
Moreover, Iran remains steadfast in rejecting the administration's demands on its nuclear and missile programs. As such, the Fordo strike does not conclude the conflict. Tehran's leadership is likely weighing a measured response to avoid direct conflict with the US, which also signaled restraint through pre-strike communications.
A key issue is what follows if Iran refuses to reengage in talks or provide a justification for further US strikes. Will the administration escalate militarily, or will it pivot to tightening sanctions without additional attacks?
Though this strike might signal military options have been exhausted, without a diplomatic breakthrough, stopping Iran from reconstructing its nuclear program is fraught with difficulty. Renewed Israeli strikes could restart hostilities, with intelligence needs paramount. Yet, no deal can compel Iran to abandon its nuclear or missile ambitions, meaning rigid demands will prolong the conflict. The strategic dilemma of ending the war remains unresolved.
