A UN-linked group assessing food security in Gaza recently modified a critical metric, enabling an easier famine declaration in the Hamas-controlled region, according to Washington Free Beacon.
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), comprising Western governments, UN bodies, and nonprofits, issued a July 29 report declaring "the worst-case scenario of famine" in Gaza. It cited "mounting evidence" of starvation, malnutrition, and disease driving hunger-related deaths. Outlets like The New York Times, NPR, CNN, and ABC News referenced the report, attributing the crisis to Israel's aid restrictions, with The New York Times noting "months of severe aid restrictions imposed by Israel on the territory" causing famine across Gaza.
Unlike prior reports, the IPC's July analysis introduced mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) as a metric, not previously used for famine declarations. It also reduced the malnutrition threshold for children from 30% to 15%, a change described by a veteran aid insider to Washington Free Beacon as a "pretty big shift" to ease famine determinations.
Traditional famine assessments rely on weight and height measurements for acute malnutrition, considered more precise than MUAC, which measures only arm circumference. Historically, IPC required 30% of children to show acute malnutrition via weight and height data. The Gaza report, however, used a 15% MUAC threshold alongside unspecified "evidence of rapidly worsening underlying drivers."
This shift was noted in a small asterisk under a graphic titled "When is Famine Classified?" in the IPC report. While MUAC is often used in conflict zones, it's not a substitute for detailed measurements, per IPC's own methodology. The report directs readers to a "Famine Fact Sheet" omitting MUAC, and IPC's technical manual requires "reliable data" from weight and height or another non-MUAC metric for famine classification.
In Gaza cities like Deir al-Balah, Khan Younis, and Gaza City, the IPC applied MUAC, finding less than 8% of children in the first two areas and 16.5% in Gaza City malnourished – above the new 15% threshold but below the traditional 30%. A veteran aid practitioner told Washington Free Beacon, "If you're planning to make a famine declaration based off the 15-percent MUAC, we as practitioners would say that's an issue."
Previous IPC famine declarations in Somalia, South Sudan, and Sudan used the 30% weight-for-height metric. The Gaza report's reliance on a 15% MUAC standard surprised aid workers, with one noting to Washington Free Beacon that it's "like lowering the bar or making it more possible" to declare famine.
The report also claims over 20,000 children were treated for acute malnutrition from April to mid-July, with over 3,000 severely malnourished, and cites 16 hunger-related child deaths since July 17. These claims rely on "internal documents" from non-public sources, including the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry and Ard el Insan, a group allegedly tied to terrorism, per Washington Free Beacon.
Richard Goldberg, a former White House official and senior adviser at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Washington Free Beacon, "If you keep pulling the thread here, you start to understand this is one of the greatest frauds ever perpetrated on the world." He added, "There is no famine in Gaza – the data thresholds don't support that claim – and yet we have the United Nations changing the rules to fit the desired political outcome."
