Speaking on Tuesday in Beirut to mark "Martyr's Day", Hezbollah's secretary-general Naim Qassem warned that "continued aggression of this kind, with killing and destruction, cannot go on. Everything has a limit, and I won't say more than that. The relevant parties should take note of the situation because it cannot continue this way."
His threat followed an open letter published on November 6 addressed to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and Prime Minister Najib Mikati, in which the Iranian-backed terrorist organization asserted its right to resist Israeli aggression. Yet given Hezbollah's complicated situation, it is doubtful that its restraint has reached a breaking point. The terrorist organization does not appear able to afford a renewed confrontation or even a limited exchange of blows with Israel. In any renewed conflict, even a localized one, Hezbollah risks losing the gains it is currently trying to secure.
Key points
- Hezbollah is rebuilding its military capabilities and recruiting thousands of new fighters with Iran's help.
- Tehran has transferred about one billion dollars to Hezbollah since January 2025 as part of strategic support.
- Israel and the US need to undermine Hezbollah's standing in the social and ideological arenas, not only militarily and economically.
Hezbollah's political troubles were reflected in another part of the same open letter, where it opposed any negotiations with Israel. The statement came in response to growing calls inside Lebanon's leadership, including President Joseph Aoun, several parliament members and media circles critical of Hezbollah, who argue that peace with Israel is essential for Lebanon's survival.
A military clash does not serve Hezbollah's interests at this stage. It is in the midst of rebuilding and expanding its power with the help of Iran's Quds Force and its own growing production capabilities. Daily Israeli strikes indicate the intense pace at which Hezbollah is pushing its recovery. Israel is trying to match that pace, but figures released by the Israel Defense Forces to the media in recent days highlight the difficult operational reality Israel is facing.
In recent weeks Hezbollah managed to smuggle hundreds of rockets, including via Syria, repair and restore launchers damaged in the war, and recruit thousands of new fighters. Qassem's statement appears aimed at appeasing internal factions unhappy with the leadership's policy of containment set by Hezbollah's Shura Council, which serves as its general staff. In early November reports in Lebanon said frustration was growing within the organization's lower ranks over the lack of retaliation to Israeli strikes.
Qassem's implied threat was also directed at Lebanon's political leadership, adding pressure on them to act against Israel to halt the strikes. Much of his speech was aimed at Lebanese officials, portraying Israeli actions as a major threat and emphasizing the importance of Hezbollah's weapons.
Israel, for its part, stands at a crossroads. The operational pattern of the Lebanese Armed Forces toward Hezbollah is inadequate. The Lebanese army projects weakness and lacks the ability to challenge the Iranian-backed terrorist organization, whose officials have openly warned they would "cut off the hand" of anyone who tries to seize its weapons. As Qassem stressed, Hezbollah views its weapons as the core of its power alongside faith and determination.
Iran, meanwhile, continues to shore up Hezbollah to preserve its influence among Lebanon's Shiite community. In late October the office of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, together with Hezbollah, launched the Arabic edition of Khamenei's scholarly book "Poetry and Music: A Study of the Imam Sayyid Ali Khamenei's Religious Ruling."
At the Beirut launch ceremony, Qassem praised Khamenei's scholarly credentials. The gesture served to remind Lebanon's Shiites of the religious sponsorship Iran gives to the terrorist organization. This complements Iran's financial backing, which, according to the Trump administration, has totaled one billion dollars since January 2025. The religious sponsorship is meant to strengthen the bond between Lebanon's Shiites and Iran under Khamenei and give them another reason to remain loyal to Hezbollah.
The Supreme Leader's office has also been signaling its personal support for Qassem, despite and to some extent because of the ridicule he faces on Lebanese social media. The office recently posted on its Arabic-language X account a portrait of Qassem alongside previous Hezbollah leaders Abbas Musawi, Hassan Nasrallah and Hashem Safi al-Din. Next to the portrait was a statement by Khamenei saying, "Nasrallah passed away but the wealth he created remains. Hezbollah's story in Lebanon is a continuing story. It is wealth for Lebanon and beyond."
Khamenei's words highlight the strategic value Iran assigns to Hezbollah and the group's central place in Iran's national security doctrine. Although the Houthis have gained stature in the Iranian-led axis due to their maritime and missile attacks during the Iron Swords War, they cannot replace Hezbollah. Hezbollah has been Iran's strategic arm abroad, from attacks against Israeli targets such as the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish Community Center in Buenos Aires, to helping build Shiite militias in Iraq after 2003, to its leading role fighting Syrian rebel groups and Islamic State in Syria, to decades of experience facing Israel.
Hezbollah also has deeper religious ties to Iran and a significant geopolitical advantage over the Houthis thanks to its border with Israel. Israel therefore needs to expand its campaign against Hezbollah into the social and ideological spheres.
"Competing" with Hezbollah
At this moment Israel has a distinct advantage. Hezbollah's political weakness, its fragile standing with its Shiite base and strong backing from President Donald Trump's administration give Israel both space and time to continue targeting the group. Still, Israel and the US will likely need to widen the effort beyond the military and the economic. Lebanon's parliamentary elections, scheduled for May 2026, are expected to serve as an important test of Hezbollah's support among its base.
Israel and the US should undermine that base by initiating a long-term strategic project that would create a competing network to Hezbollah's dawa system, which encompasses welfare, health, social and financial services.
The attempt to cut Iran's financial support to Hezbollah, as announced by John Hurley, the US Treasury's Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, is a step in the right direction. But Israel and the US must go further by reducing Lebanon's Shiite community's economic dependence on Hezbollah and offering an alternative that helps them develop an independent Lebanese identity. This includes providing replacement services for those Hezbollah currently supplies.
On the ideological front, in response to Hezbollah's Imam al-Mahdi Scouts youth movement, through which Shiite children between ages 0 and 10 are indoctrinated into loyalty to Khamenei, Israel and the US should launch initiatives emphasizing loyalty to Lebanon and the prosperity Lebanon's Shiites could achieve by abandoning their opposition to Israel.
