The US can inflict unprecedented damage on Iran, but that would not necessarily deal a strategic blow. The regime in Tehran, for its part, is prepared to pay a heavy price. These are the three options Trump considered, and the calculation that led him to cancel the strike, at least for now.
It does not fire missiles, but Qatar wields extensive influence that endangers Israel by funding, propaganda and its ties with terrorist organizations. Experts warn Qatar poses a strategic threat.
In the Middle East, a good agreement is measured not by the intentions expressed on the day it is signed, but by its ability to withstand violations the next day. From the jihadists who still threaten the Israel-Syria border, through Iran and Hezbollah, to the Druze: The points Israel must insist on, and why time is not on its side.
The terrorist organization is not truly prepared to give up power as long as it refuses to disarm. The proposed framework seeks to place responsibility for dealing with the chaos in Gaza on a technocratic committee, while Hamas frees itself to continue rebuilding its military capabilities. Despite many eliminations, a group of senior Hamas officials in Gaza has survived so far, and does not intend to relinquish its light weapons or tunnels.
The draft crisis is pushing the integration of Haredi Israelis into broader Israeli society further away and radicalizing the discourse. How did things move from the historic agreement with Ben-Gurion, which granted a small group of Torah scholars an exemption from military service, to cries of “War!” and the demonization of the State of Israel?
The signing of the memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran marks the beginning of a new regional order. While the Gulf states are returning to dialogue with Iran and focusing on economic stability, Israel is still talking about continuing the struggle. Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Doha have internalized that Tehran remains a major player in the region, and that it is better to learn to live alongside it than to try to subdue it.
The senior American official distorted the truth in a briefing to reporters: The centrifuges will remain, the enriched uranium will not be removed, and Trump himself contradicted him the next day. Iran won on the money issue: Lifting sanctions on oil exports will channel tens of billions of dollars to the Revolutionary Guards, more than they earned by bypassing sanctions. Senior US official to Israel: “You will not be a signatory to the agreement, but every action you take will have to be coordinated with the US.”
President Trump threatened an unusual attack and the seizure of Tehran’s fuel terminals, but behind the scenes, a memorandum of understandings has already been drafted. Diplomats in the Gulf are worried and are calling on Netanyahu to intervene: “Trump is going back to his old conduct. This will be a missed opportunity for real change.”
A year after Operation Rising Lion and the subsequent Operation Roaring Lion, it is becoming clear that the impressive operational achievements in Iran created a strategic situation more challenging and complex than ever.
The capture of the Beaufort ridge is not expected to bring immediate quiet to northern Israel, but it contributes to encircling the enemy, destroying infrastructure and strengthening deterrence. The true significance of the move is far broader than a narrow tactical achievement.
