A day before the election, the final polls tell us that about one-third of voters are still undecided whom to vote for, a situation that is considered rare in political science. That is an enormous percentage of undecided voters compared to what is generally acceptable worldwide. To compare, in the April 9 election, only 8% of voters were still undecided a day before the polls opened. It looks like this time, the voters are more confused than usual.
In this election, the undecideds are more important than in any other, because they will decide who becomes prime minister. Generally, undecided voters are only the fringes. This time, they're the main story.
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Generally speaking, at the start of an election campaign, about a third of voters are undecided. During the campaign most of them make a decision based on campaign propaganda and discussions with friends. Worldwide, only about 10% of voters are usually undecided by Election Day. About half of them will make their final decision only when they step into the voting booth, and half won't be able to decide. That's how it's always been in Israel.
Studies conducted in the US present a psychological profile of voters who are still undecided at the time of an election. They show that the hesitation isn't between two good candidates. The opposite – undecided voters find it hard to make a decision between who they see as bad politicians. Undecideds are predisposed against politicians. It's very hard for candidates to persuade them that their opponents are worse, because they already think so. If a campaign causes undecided voters to loathe the opponent, they won't vote for him or her, meaning that their default choice becomes to vote for the politician behind that campaign. This is the professional reason for election mudslinging.
An analysis of undecided voters in the US indicates that they are mostly white, non-college-educated women. Most African Americans, Hispanics, and college graduates make their decisions, and vote Democratic. We can assume that the situation in Israel is similar, that residents of the periphery hesitate less than the citizens of Tel Aviv.
Israeli left-wingers seem to be hesitating more this time. On one hand, they are disappointed by Blue and White leader Benny Gantz, who isn't laying out a path or an ideology, but they will never vote for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Their lack of decisiveness is restricted to the left-wing bloc.
US studies can teach us about undecided Israeli voters, but only to a certain extent. This is because the parliamentary system in Israel cannot be compared to the US two-party system. The late Republican political consultant Arthur Finkelstein once told me, "When I look at two candidates, I'm happy that only one of them will be elected."
