U.S. President Donald Trump declared Tuesday that there is no "other" Iran, that anyone who had believed it could change or behave differently and honor agreements was living under a delusion. Trump said there is only one way to approach the Iranian regime: with power, and if that doesn't work, more power.
This approach has already been tried, but not to the fullest extent. The world declared sanctions against Iran, but at the last minute, instead of imposing sanctions that would paralyze Iran and force it to pull back from its nuclear program, it retreated in favor of a temporary deal full of loopholes. Two major issues were left out of the deal: Iran's ballistic missile program and its support for terrorism in the region.
Trump bundled all these things together to justify his decision not to play along with Iran anymore. He did not go into detail about his next moves, but if he goes "all the way," he will find himself in difficulties not only with Iran, but also with the five other countries who signed the deal: Russia, China, France, the U.K. and Germany, who invested enormous efforts but failed to convince him not to abandon the deal.
The major sanctions on Iran will include not trading with it. This means that international corporations that were dreaming of signing large contracts in Iran will be forced to choose between trading with it or trading with the Americans. Their choice will be clear.
The result we are hoping for is that Iran will be pushed into a corner. Economically, it is already there: The Iranian rial has been collapsing for some time, and residents do not have enough money to live on. In terms of the population, the Iranian regime is not up against a wall yet – while there were large protests some months ago that the regime brutally suppressed, the masses still have not risen up against the government. Trump's speech expressed hope that this may now come to pass. It is likely that the regime in Tehran will do everything it can to funnel the outrage in the streets outward, toward the U.S. and Israel.
The Trump announcement will probably suck Iran into two internal storms. The first, between moderates and extremists, led Iran to agree to the deal in the first place in the hope of a better economic future, which failed to materialize. The second is over what action to take now. We will probably hear a lot of threats from Tehran, but it is doubtful Iran will lose its head to the point of trying to make a breakthrough and obtain military nuclear capabilities. A move like that would not only justify the American stance but would also reunite an international coalition that supports the U.S. and may resort to military action.
Israel would do well to watch these developments from the side. Trump made his positions perfectly clear, and the constant roaring by cabinet ministers here does nothing other than raise the public's level of fear. Anyway, Israel has more pressing issues right now, such as the expected Iranian response to strikes on its bases in Syria, which have been attributed to Israel. Iran has refrained from responding until after last week's election in Lebanon and now Trump's announcement.
The IDF believes that a window of opportunity for Iran to respond opened on Tuesday, and decided to issue orders to open bomb shelters in the Golan Heights and raise the alert level. We can also assume that the strike in Syria on Tuesday evening after Trump's announcement, which was also attributed to Israel, is linked to these preventative measures. It is unclear whether the strike foiled an Iranian plan to fire rockets and missiles at IDF bases in the Golan Heights.
The ball is in Iran's court. It will probably seek revenge, but without dragging the entire region into a war. It will have to play very carefully, and not only because it will be difficult to control the results of an Iranian attack and an Israel response, but also because any Iranian action – certainly any high-profile one – will cast it as the source of evil in the region and legitimize Israeli responses, as well as reinforcing Trump's decision.
