Can I be a wet blanket? From the American point of view, US President Joe Biden's upcoming visit to Israel isn't the most important for him. Personally, Biden feels a dep connection to Israel, and that's good. But nothing beyond that.
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It will be a big surprise if he brings about a breakthrough in ties between Israel and the Saudis. After all, Saudi Arabia opened its skies to flights to and from Israel three years ago. We cannot discount the significance of the Saudis allowing Israeli flights to use their airspace, if it happens, but official Saudi recognition of Israel or an Abraham Accords-style of ambassadors is not on the horizon.
Certainly, nothing dramatic can be expected when it comes to the Palestinians. Prime Minister Yair Lapid will not put his campaign at risk for the sake of a photo op with PA President Mahmous Abbas.
One of the reasons Biden is coming is to court Jewish money and votes. His party is in trouble ahead of the midterm elections, which will be held in November. It's no coincidence that the White House has been taking pains to brief Jewish media outlets about the visit.
Still, Israel is just a stopover. The American president has to make it, because if he doesn't, he'll be accused of boycotting Israel, as happened was former President Barack Obama in 2009.
But the main goal of Biden's visit to the Middle East is Saudi Arabia. He titled an oped he published in the Washington Post "Why I'm going to Saudi Arabia."
The answer is that that Biden needs Saudi oil. The Russo-Ukraine war has caused prices to spike, and they are the most important thing for American voters. Biden is humiliating himself by meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, who he said in his election campaign would be "made to pay" for the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The result is that after boycotting the most powerful man in the Arab world for 18 months, Biden winds up being the one to pay.
Biden also wants to make a show of American presence in the face of Chinese activity in the region. Saudi-Chinese ties are growing stronger, and Chinese President Xi Jinping was supposed to visit Riyadh in April for an international conference like the one Biden will be holding there. Xi was forced to stay home due to a COVID outbreak in Shanghai. Biden – some would say, wisely – took advantage of the opportunity.
So Saudi Arabia is the focus, not Israel. Still, after Clinton, Bush Jr., Obama, and Trump, Biden is the fifth president in a row to visit Israel. So even if we're just a stop, it's good to be a required one.
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