With efforts to pass a state budget in the final stretch, all sides are preparing for a head-to-head battle from which only one winner can emerge. The coalition is approaching the finish line as the clear favorite, and the state budget appears likely to pass. Yet the opposition intends to fight it out till the end. The opposition may not score a knockout, meaning preventing the state budget's passage and toppling the government, but it hopes to at least score some points by torpedoing a few of the coalition's moves.
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It's not just the size of the opposition that stands in its way, or the fact that the Joint Arab List will serve as the coalition's security net when necessary, but the fact that it has had some of the wind taken out of its sails. The opposition is clearly lacking both the motivation and discipline necessary. While this week started off better than the last, with a narrowly passed vote of no confidence, the path to regaining the fighting spirit that once characterized the Likud, the Religious Zionist Party, and the Haredi parties remains a long one.
Senior Likud members are convinced the bad times are behind them and Sunday's faction meeting jolted all those who still needed to get their act together. Time will tell. In the meantime, Likud officials plan to use what they as vulnerabilities in the state budget and Arrangements Law to squeeze the coalition as tightly as possible. Perhaps, if they are lucky, they will see signs that the coalition is beginning to crack.
One such issue concerns plans to raise the age of retirement for women. The Meretz party opposes the move outright, and discussions of the subject are ongoing. Of course, the opposition also opposes the move.
Another subject is that of raising soldiers' salaries. Shortly after Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman was made finance minister, he promise he would do just that, but he has since backtracked, and the move has been shelved. Through personalized legislation, the Likud is trying to pass a law to raise salaries in a way that bypasses Lieberman and could earn coalition members' support and pass the Knesset despite the finance minister's position.
Plans for an "agricultural revolution" introduced by Lieberman and his fellow party member Agriculture Minister Oded Forer are not a done deal either. Lawmakers who support the agricultural union, which is far from pleased from all of the planned reforms thus far, are liable to raise the issue at the last minute.
The more controversial legislation on the table pertains to demands from the Ra'am party no country predicated on law and order would authorize. Their proposed legislation would reward criminals. The reason Ra'am is demanding the legislation is clear: There is barely any Arab Israeli city, village, or community that does not have illegal construction irregularities on a mass scale. If passed, such legislation would allow the owners of unauthorized homes to connect to Israel's electrical grid without having acquired the necessary certification of the safety and legality of their structures.
The weakest link
The opposition sees Ra'am as the weakest link in the coalition and the party that could turn out to be insatiable and as such, perhaps the key to bringing down the government. On the other hand, the assessment is that this remains unlikely. After all of the hullaballoo, the party will likely try to justify its decision to become the first Arab party to join the coalition government – that is at least in the short-term and under the current state budget.
Another weak link is Yisrael Beytenu MK Eli Avidar, who was not given a meaningful ministerial role after Intelligence Services Minister Elazar Stern withdrew his candidacy for Jewish Agency chief. Despite his frustration with the government and his party chairman Lieberman, Avidar has continued to say he is committed to the stability of the government.
The battle won't conclude with the budget and the Arrangements Law or other legislation such as that introduced by New Hope leader Gideon Sa'ar, which if passed, would prevent Opposition Leader Benjamin Netanyahu from forming a government after the next elections due to his indictment.
The vast majority of right-wing members of the coalition, including Sa'ar himself, have opposed the legislation outright in the past. But as is often the case, the personal is taking precedence over ideology. For Sa'ar, this is not just a law but his life's mission. Even if this turns out to be his last term in office, which according to the polls is the case, Sa'ar plans to take Netanyahu down with him and he won't relent until he knows his plan has been carried out in its entirety.
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