The attack that destroyed the Iranian drones in their home base in Iran last month, which has been attributed to Israel, looks to have been a resounding success. Similar to previous operations, it indicates considerable operational and intelligence gathering capabilities on the part of the Mossad, in conjunction with the IDF, which allows Israel to pinpoint and hit strategic targets inside the Islamic republic.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram
Unlike the past, this attack was kept a secret for nearly a month, until it was revealed on Tuesday by the Haaretz daily newspaper (following initial reports earlier this week in the Lebanese press). It's possible the Iranians didn't want to admit they'd been breached yet again and perhaps wanted to conceal the scope of the damage – hundreds of drones of various types were destroyed on the ground – at the secure military facility in Kermanshah; or maybe they wanted to retaliate first, which they finally did earlier this week by firing missiles at a base in Kurdistan which they allege was used by the Mossad.
Either way, this chain of events informs us that the war between Israel and Iran is becoming more violent and public than before. Although Israel adheres to a policy of secrecy (operationally and in claiming responsibility) when it acts on Iranian soil, it appears it is willing to take larger risks than before to disrupt the Iranians' operational capabilities and to try deterring them.
This is a prudent policy, which will likely be amplified once the nuclear deal with Iran is finalized. Although the deal will prohibit Israel from attacking Iran's uranium enrichment facilities, it will be free to act against anything else it perceives as a danger: Iran's missiles and rockets, drone fleet, terrorist activity, and any component of the nuclear project that isn't related to uranium enrichment.
All of this obligates the Mossad to continue honing its considerable operational capabilities inside Iran. We can safely assume the Iranians will look to further bolster their security arrangements around these facilities and various activities, which means Israel will have to be more creative and daring – including risking harsher Iranian retaliations than ever before.
The Iranians, it seems, are already heavily committed to this course of action. Their attack in Kurdistan wasn't the first of its kind, but publicly claiming responsibility was an act of defiance directed not only at Israel but the Kurds as well. Perhaps the Iranians want to establish their own campaign between the wars: Just as Israel also pins blame on the Assad regime after hitting Iranian targets in Syria, the Iranians want to signal to the Kurds that their cooperation with Israel could exact heavier prices in the future. It will be interesting to see whether Iran restricts this policy to Kurdistan alone, or expands it to include other countries that cooperate with Israel, among them the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.
Solving Hezbollah – even at the cost of war
This escalating war means Israel must make calculations on other fronts. Although the Lebanese front is quiet for now, Hezbollah poses an increasingly difficult challenge to the IDF in general and the air force in particular. This is evidenced by the flight patterns of Israeli drones over Lebanon due to fears that Hezbollah will shoot them down. Even if this is only a minor hindrance to Israel in Lebanon, Hezbollah is using it to establish its status as the defender of Lebanon – a matter which Israel must resolve operationally, even at the cost of an isolated clash with Hezbollah before it projects this perception to other areas of activity in the sector.
Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!
